Skeptical optimist. Like to laugh.

Fire & Motion 30

2023 年 5 月 14 日（编辑过）

Stin's reading note.

Fleeting Quote

When you tilt the odds in your favor, the world does most of the work for you.
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What makes life mean something is purpose. A goal. The battle. The struggle. Even if you don’t win it.

Reading

📕這個世界運作的真相

大型風力渦輪機，這些巨大的鋼鐵、水泥和塑膠組合物，也是化石燃料的化身。地基是鋼筋混凝土，塔架、機艙和轉子是鋼，巨大的葉片是塑膠樹酯做的，能源密集度很高，難以回收利用。這些巨大的零件都必須由超大卡車運到安裝現場，再由大型鋼製吊車架設，而渦輪齒輪箱必須反覆上油才能潤滑。

再生能源的建置比我想像中的更不環保、更仰賴既有的石化系統。物質、材料層面的革新才能真正有效地減低石化帶來的汙染。

我們習慣低估自願、熟悉的風險，而一再誇大非自願、不熟悉的風險；對於剛發生的可怕經驗，我們經常高估相關風險，至於在集體和機構記憶中消退的事件，我們則低估相關風險。

例如人們習慣低估自行駕車的事故風險，但誇大遭遇恐怖攻擊的機會。

歷史顯然不是一種電腦化的理論運算，主要的成就恰好都落在以零或五結尾的年份，歷史充滿了不連續、逆轉和不可預測的偏離。[...] 我們無法只因為某人決定要讓全球消費曲線，從長達數百年的上升趨勢突然反轉成持續快速下滑，就立刻去改變現行供電系統的運作，畢竟這套複雜的系統包含了一百多億噸的化石燃料，以及超過十七兆瓦的能量轉換率。

讀到「以零或五結尾的年代」讓我笑了出來 (笑)，此刻人們使用的各種系統，如供電系統、農業系統、產業生產鏈......等等，其複雜度與糾纏程度遠超人的想像，而要在短短的數十年改變 (對比工業革命以來的兩個世紀) 相當的困難。

儘管各種卓越的創新如雨後春筍出現，從太陽能電池到鋰離子電池，從3D列印任何東西到能合成汽油的細菌，但是上述這些現實有助於解釋為什麼在未來二十到三十年內，我們生活的基本面不會發生重大變化。鋼鐵、水泥、氨和塑膠依然是文明的四大材料支柱；全球交通運輸多半還是依賴精練的液體燃料；種植穀物時，不管是犁、耙、播種機和施肥機等農具，都需要曳引機幫忙拉動，收割時需要聯合收割機將穀物倒入卡車。不會由大型機器當場列印出高樓層的公寓，要是我們很快又碰上另一場大流行病，那麼備受推崇的人工智慧，很可能會像2020年新冠病毒疫情期間一樣，發揮不了太大的作用。

比起想像未來會出現哪些新東西，預測什麼事物不會改變 (或變化很小) 才是揭示未來最有效的途徑。《這個世界運作的真相》時時地提醒我，要以周延的觀察來理解既有系統，並以謙遜的態度來想像未來：歷史與科技的發展並非一蹴可及，也不會有什麼重要的事件或發明在一瞬間改變一切。

📕大人學選擇

職場的報酬，第一個想到的當然是錢啦！其次還有成就感、社會認同、人脈等無形的效益。這些效益通常不明顯，會慢慢以機會的形式呈現出來。

萬物皆有價，追尋天賦與熱情時更不該忽略金錢的重要性。在成就幸福的五個要素 (職涯、人際關係、財務、健康、居住地點) 中，也唯有職涯一事能同時帶給另外四項要素正向的影響：理想的職涯能帶來 meaningful relationship、健康的財務狀態、維持身心靈的健全，並能對居住地點有所選擇。

企業選擇接班人，並非選擇最有產值的員工來當主管，而是將已經具備管理思維的員工扶正而已。這一切的心態轉變，都來自於你能否看懂職場這個局，再做出長期有利於自己的選擇。

我常想，大人學的存在即是導正學員的 perspective，以符合職場規則的視角來審視全局。未來會再報名大人學的「V018用經營公司的思維經營你的人生」。

工作的本質非常單純，那就是：透過幫助他人，換取生活所需，彰顯自我價值。

Serving others 無論是在職場或者人生其他方面，都必須排在首位！

房子是「不動產」，一買下人就「動不了」。

我喜歡這個解釋 (笑)

📕The Inner Game of Tennis

Ending judgement means you neither add nor subtract from the facts before your eyes. Things appear as they are, undistorted.

and to accept things as they are.

"Asking for qualities" describes this other kind of role-playing. When introducing this idea, I usually say something like this: "Imagine that I am the director of a television series. Knowing that you are and actor that plays tennis, I ask if you would like to do a bit part as a top-flight tennis player. I assure you that you needn't worry about hitting the ball out or into the net because the camera will only be focused on you and will not follow the ball. What I'm mainly interested in is that you adopt professional mannerisms, and that you swing your racket with supreme self-assurance. Above all, your face must express no self-doubt. You should look as if you are hitting every ball exactly where you want to. Really get into the role, hit as hard as you like and ignore where the ball is actually going."

As I tried this mindset during my badminton practice, I found that it not only aroused my confidence, but it also helped relax my muscles and immerse myself into the games.

A child doesn't have to break the habit of crawling, because he doesn't think he has a habit. He simply leaves it as he finds walking an easier way to get around. [...] In short, there is no need to fight old habits. Start new ones. It is the resisting of an old it that puts you in that trench.

Act maturely, but think like a child.

True competition is identical with true cooperation. Each player tries his hardest to defeat the other, but in this use of competition it isn't the other person we are defeating; it is simply a matter of overcoming the obstacles he presents. In true competition person is defeated. Both players benefit by their efforts to overcome the obstacles presented by the other.

so it is our opponent who truly has the abillity to bring the best out of ourselves!

What does it mean to win the Inner Game? [...] Any attempt to define an answer to this question is an invitation to Self 1 to form a misconception.

What a great conclusion to end the book! It is hard to not compare the Inner Game with Taoism: the key isn't pursue hard but with elegance, and once the nerves are tense, the beauty of the game is lost.

📕抉擇

即使軍力和經濟再強大，美國的價值觀才是力量和安全最大的來源。這不僅是一種理想，也是基於對我們戰略地位的清晰評估。

軍力與經濟實力可以再數十年間趕上，但價值的形塑 take centuries.

歷史告訴我們，叛亂很少是在戰艦的甲板上以受降儀式告終。反之，它會走入盡頭往往是因為外交上的努力不懈、當地民眾的生活品質持續改善，以及想要和平的人堅持到底。

戰爭永遠是下策，用適當的誘因將人民從叛亂中解放出來，才是釜底抽薪的方法。

📒浪人劍客

你要深信，甚至信賴圍繞著自己的空氣，如此一來，只要被這股溫和的空氣包圍著，對方就不會傷害你。不久，這股空氣就會成長延伸，甚至連對方都包圍起來。

小註記：終於把浪人劍客共 37 集追完了，希望井上雄彥能把結局畫出來 (笑)

📄What I Think Is Going On 1) with China-US Relations, 2) with Their Relations with Other Countries, and 3) in China

The fight for global influence is well underway and great splits between different countries’ leaders and even different political parties within countries exist, so while alliances are emerging, relationships are pretty unstable and fragmented.

📄How to Want Less

Satisfaction = what you have ÷ what you want

focus on the denominator.

We can, in fact, find immense fullness when we pay attention to smaller and smaller things. The Buddhist master Thich Nhat Hanh explains this in his book The Miracle of Mindfulness: “While washing the dishes one should only be washing the dishes, which means that while washing the dishes one should be completely aware of the fact that one is washing the dishes.” Why? If we are thinking about the past or future, “we are not alive during the time we are washing the dishes.”