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In August, the Ministry of Defense of Japan reported that after the deployment of missiles on Amami Oshima Island in Kagoshima Prefecture, Okinawa Main Island, and Miyakojima Island in Okinawa Prefecture, the fourth missile base will be deployed on Ishigaki Island in Okinawa Prefecture before the end of 2022. 《Yomiuri Shinbun》 recently reported that the move was aimed at strengthening defenses on the southwestern islands and countering the projection of Chinese military power.

《Yomiuri Shinbun》only stated the tactical purpose of Japan's move, not its fundamental strategic intentions. What is the strategic intention of the Japanese government? To be honest, since the end of World War II, the strategic intention of the Japanese government has been to use Western power to stand firm and even break out of Asia, and then become a global "normal country" and a political and military autonomous country. Objectively speaking, this intention has been half realized, that is, Japan has become an important part of the global economy many years ago, and it was once in the second place. From this point of view, it is commendable that an island country has developed to today and became the first developed country in Asia.

However, Japan, which has a heavy historical burden with Asian countries, especially with China and South Korea, is too difficult to achieve political and military goals. At least, the path of confrontation with China and South Korea has gone to this day, and there is currently no possibility of any breakthrough in the goal of the Japanese government.

This missile deployment plan undoubtedly made Japan-China relations worse, and the gains outweighed the losses.

For one thing, the deployment of missiles is only symbolic but not practical. Japan and China have historical grievances and the actual Diaoyu Islands dispute, but even if the two cannot improve the situation, they will not at least provoke a war between the two countries. After all, the two countries have a tacit understanding. Maintaining the current situation is in real interest. It is that China is basically passive on these two points and has no active attempts to intensify it. In other words, the Japanese government's plan to deploy missiles again is not to respond to the imminent war needs. The resolution of historical issues and the Diaoyu Islands issue ultimately requires political wisdom rather than military struggle.

Second, the deployment of missiles has given Taiwan courage, and it is very likely to ask for trouble. In this deployment, an inconvenient intention is to create more difficulties for the reunification process between Mainland China and Taiwan. This point has a certain effect, as can be seen from Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party members’ active security dialogue with Japan.With this help from Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen of course can be more active in de-sinicization. But looking back, the Taiwan issue is related to China’s core interests and the legalization of the Chinese Communist Party’s rule. Once the separatist forces in Taiwan cross the red line and the two sides of the strait have to have a military showdown, where will Japan go?Ishigaki Island is only two hundred nautical miles away from Taiwan. Will missiles be launched by then? Will the launch play a decisive role? What kind of counterattack will China usher in after launching? Anyone with a discerning eye can see that the Taiwan Strait is either a storm in a teacup or a thunderstorm, and China must see it as a battle for national destiny. At that time, the mainland must be ready for a showdown with the United States. How can Japan stay out of the way if it can't hold it back? With China in a state of war, is the Japanese government ready for war?

Third, the deployment of missiles is actually a move for Japan to closely follow the US Indo-Pacific strategy, but it cannot help Japan to normalize and cannot replace its permanent seat on the Security Council. Times have changed. The international environment and technological development have changed too much from the last century. Fighting between China and the United States will be the norm for a long time. The only tipping point is the situation in the Taiwan Strait. Given the situation in the United States, it is a question of whether there will be a hot war with the mainland at that time. In terms of estimated losses, the United States’ defense of Taiwan is a black hole. In the face of the situation where the mainland has no way to retreat and the United States has a way to retreat, who’s There is no doubt that the will to war is more determined. So, how does the Japanese government benefit itself as a pawn of the United States? It is inevitable that China will be more afraid of Japan's actions. The reform of the Security Council that Japan wants to promote will be even more distant in the foreseeable future. In addition to historical grievances and military considerations, Japan's entry into the permanent membership will be even more difficult.

In short, the deployment of missiles on Ishigaki Island has put a thick haze on Japan-China relations that have been unstable in recent years. As far as China is concerned, it is unwilling to see this situation, and as far as Japan is concerned, it is hard to say that it has achieved its strategic intentions.