This article was translated from Chinese to English by Google translation software

     Analyzing Putin's Reasons for Launching the Russo-Ukrainian War and Follow-up Behaviors from the Perspective of Values ​​and Spiritual Psychology

   On the last day of last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a New Year's speech in 2023 at the headquarters of the Russian Southern Military District. In his speech, Putin emphasized the importance and determination of defending Russia's national sovereignty and protecting the morality and dignity of the Russian nation. Putin also made it clear that he would continue military operations in Ukraine and asked the Russian army and Russian citizens to fight for the country.

   This means that Putin did not stop the war due to the huge setbacks and serious losses of the Russian army in the Russia-Ukraine War, but tried to continue the war until Russia achieved "victory".

   In the Russo-Ukraine War, which has lasted for nearly a year, the Russian army has paid the price of more than 100,000 deaths and injuries, and lost most of the Ukrainian territory it occupied at the beginning of the war. The tendency to retreat. The Russian army's poor equipment, backward combat methods, poor combat effectiveness and serious corruption exposed during the war also mean that it is difficult for the Russian army to defeat the Ukrainian army, which is fully armed by NATO.

   But why is Putin still insisting on continuing the war? What was Putin's motivation for invading and occupying Ukraine? What is the possible outcome of Putin's future personal destiny?

    Regarding Putin's invasion of Ukraine, most observers regard it as Russia's imperial hegemony and expansionist behavior based on real interests, and regard it as a means of confronting the United States, NATO, and the European Union. That's certainly part of the reason.

   But Putin's motivation for invading Ukraine does not stop there. Whether it is this New Year's speech or Putin's previous speeches on other occasions (such as the "Valdai Club" annual meeting that Putin will participate in in recent years), Putin has repeatedly mentioned the praise of the Russian nation and his piety for the Orthodox faith. As well as emphasizing the adherence to the traditional values ​​based on the two, and the respect of related moral norms.

    At the same time, Putin also strongly criticized the value orientation and related behaviors of Western progressive forces and even the entire establishment, such as the criticism and deconstruction of ethnicity, religion, and family by progressives in Europe and the United States, as well as the construction of a pluralistic society, feminism, Support and expansion of LGBT rights and environmentalism are all publicly despised and criticized by Putin.

    In the view of Putin and his supporters, the establishment political forces in Western countries, especially the progressives, have abandoned traditional values ​​based on ethnicity, religion, and family, and even disintegrated the corresponding social structures, leading to the collapse of the nation and the collapse of the people. The depravity is just like what happened in the city of Sodom in the Bible. Putin also believes that the West has been held by such "degenerate" values ​​and forces with evil purposes (that is, what some conspiracy theorists call the "deep state". Although Putin does not fully agree with the "deep state" conspiracy theory, he also regards the Western establishment Send forces for the "fallen" and opponents) to control and try to control the world. If the "deep state" succeeds, it will bring all mankind, including Russians and Ukrainians, into disaster.

    Putin and his supporters also believe that when the West is generally degenerate, Russia should not only resist the erosion of the "degenerate culture" of the West, but also use various means including war to defeat the West's political power and the right to speak out in public opinion. Power, save Europe and the world from "degeneration", let all countries and nations return to the social structure based on traditional values, and the international order also returns to the traditional pattern of empires dividing the world.

   People in various countries have paid little attention to these motives. Although some people, including Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, have mentioned it in articles published by the New York Times and other media, attention and research are still far from enough.

    These ideas held by Putin and his supporters are somewhat similar to Huntington's "clash of civilizations". It’s just that compared with Huntington’s “clash of civilizations” based on the fact that there is no fundamental distinction between different nations and religions, what Putin and his supporters believe and advocate is that the Russian nation sticks to the tradition of “morality” and “justice” Values, a "good and evil" confrontation with "degenerate" Western left-wing/progressive values ​​and the establishment ("deep state").

    Putin's domestic and foreign affairs in the past decade or so can be traced back to these values ​​he upholds. It is precisely based on this value orientation that Putin gave up his attempt to integrate into the Western world, and instead emphasized the independence of the Russian state, carried forward the traditions of the nation and the Orthodox Church, and embarked on a long-term path of confrontation with the West.

   The invasion of Ukraine is an important step for Putin to realize his "defense of Russia" and "rescue of the fallen West". In the view of Putin and his supporters, Ukraine’s independence and closeness to the West not only threatens Russia’s real interests and harms Russia’s geopolitical security, but the Ukrainian government is also an agent of the Western establishment (“deep state”). The bridgehead to subvert the Putin regime, the Western values ​​it pursues will also erode the Russian nation. As a result, Putin launched this unnecessary large-scale war from a realistic point of view, which plunged Ukraine into a brutal war, and cast a shadow over the whole of Europe and the world.

   So, after the Russia-Ukraine war has been going on for nearly a year, the Russian army suffered heavy losses and retreated steadily, why does Putin insist on continuing the difficult-to-win war? This can be done by guessing and analyzing Putin's words and deeds and psychological motives.

    Since Putin entered the Russian political center, he has always shown himself as tough, resolute, and brave. Moreover, Putin's "personality" is an important basis for him to gain wide support, win the presidency, and hold power for a long time.

   For example, the reason why Putin stood out from Yeltsin's many cronies and became Yeltsin's successor was precisely because he launched the second Chechen war during his tenure as prime minister, using iron fists (including a large number of brutal human rights violations, such as the use of large Weapons of mass destruction, attacks on civilian areas, killing prisoners of war, etc.) suppressed the rebellion and independence of Chechen Muslims, and washed away the shame of the defeat of the Russian army in the first Chechen war. Putin's merciless attack on Chechen rebels during the war has won praise from all walks of life in Russia's military and political circles and the support of the general public. What Putin said to the Chechen militants at that time, "We will drown the terrorists in the toilet" (although Putin later regretted that he should not have said this), has also become a widely circulated famous saying, and has been received by many Chinese People from all over the world despise human rights and praise those who admire power.

   In the two decades since then, Putin has always shown his "tough guy" image to the outside world. Whether it is the confrontational posture shown in foreign strategies (especially for the United States and NATO), the ruthless attack on domestic oligarchs, or the personal life image that is often created through activities such as hunting, swimming, and fitness, Putin always shows himself as a "tough guy". Always show its aggressiveness and deterrence.

    For a "tough guy" like Putin, if he wants to maintain his image, he cannot show his retreat and failure in various conflicts, but must show his aggressiveness and win. Only by being tough to the end and continuing to win (even if it is just pretending to be tough and fabricating victories) can the strongmen from all walks of life who are afraid of him, such as political, business, and military affairs, bow their heads and keep the people who worship strongmen maintaining their support. And if he shows retreat and admits defeat, he will lose his authority and be overthrown by his subordinates and the people who once feared him.

      Therefore, even though the Russian army was retreating steadily in Ukraine, Putin still refused the real peace talks, but chose to let the Russian army fight to the end. Only in this way, the elites and the masses in Russia, who are in awe of their iron-fisted policies, will continue to support Putin and the survival of the Putin regime. On the contrary, if Putin admits defeat and withdraws from peace talks, he will be seen as weak and incompetent and abandoned.

    However, according to the current situation, the Russian army has no hope of winning. Will Putin continue to fight this inevitable war until he is completely defeated? This can also be solved by speculating on Putin's psychology.

    As mentioned earlier, for a "tough guy" like Putin, he cannot shrink back. Not only must he be tough when he is in an advantage, but he also needs to be tough when he is in a disadvantage. For strongmen like Putin who rely on violence and insidious means to hold power, they are extremely afraid of compromising and giving up, which will lead to the loss of authority. Therefore, the weaker it is, the more it has to bluff, and even take the risk of making many actual provocations and attacks to prevent the outside world from recognizing its nature of being strong on the outside but doing nothing on the inside.

   In order to show their self-strength and achieve their goals, such people will often take risks without hesitation about the consequences, and use all means and costs to deter their opponents and achieve their goals. In international politics, there is a well-known "Play Chicken" theory. The general idea is that the conflicting parties are like two cars driving towards each other on the same lane. If both parties refuse to give way in order to show that they are not afraid of the conflict, the end will be a head-on collision and both sides will suffer. If one party chooses to give in at the last moment , the party who chooses to back down will be regarded as a "coward" and its reputation will be damaged, but tragic conflicts and greater loss of interests will be avoided. (Of course, the "coward theory" does not only exist in international relations, there are similar situations in the internal struggles of many countries and organizations)

    Putin is a character who loves to play the "chicken's game" very much. The reason why he launched the Ukraine war was that he expected that the West would not support Ukraine (or at least not on a large scale), and he could win through war risks. But he guessed wrong, and the Russian army paid a heavy price. Most people may choose to back down when encountering such a situation. But Putin decided to continue fighting Ukraine and the West.

    Putin's calculation is that the Russian army is not afraid of casualties under his control (or even in the face of huge casualties, the Russian army can only obey Putin's order to fight) and can fight for a long time; while Ukraine and the West care about human rights and democracy because they talk about human rights and democracy. Human lives and public opinion cannot bear more and more casualties and higher and higher costs, so they will "admit counsel" first. In this way, the Russian army can win, or at least force Ukraine and the West to make huge concessions in exchange for a decent ceasefire.

    In the masterpiece "The Three-Body Problem" by Chinese science fiction writer Liu Cixin, there is a character named Thomas Vader, who has a vicious personality, insidious methods, and extremely aggressive words and deeds. And Putin is such a character.

    Putin not only wants to continue to fight the war, but also threatened to use nuclear weapons many times. This is also playing the "chicken game" to force the West to make concessions. Moreover, if the survival of the Putin regime and the life and death of Putin himself are threatened, Putin will choose to use nuclear weapons (of course, whether it can be used successfully is another matter, and he may be arrested by his subordinates when he orders).

    In fact, Putin's tough and adventurous personality traits have been like this since he was young. During the drastic changes in Eastern Europe and the fall of the Berlin Wall, Putin, as a KGB operative in East Germany, used guns to drive back the East German people who tried to rush into the KGB building. And after entering the political arena, he has repeatedly acted tough in domestic and foreign affairs, and has continued to achieve success with the help of his superb political means, timely circumstances and luck factors.

   These successes galvanized Putin into thinking that toughness and risk-taking always succeed. In 2014, Russia successfully "recovered" Crimea and controlled Donbass, which further fueled its ambitions. Thus, there was this year's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

   Putin's invasion of Ukraine also surprised some observers. Most people don't think that Putin will launch a full-scale invasion, at least until the US intelligence agencies get the news that Putin will invade Ukraine and make it public. Because Putin has already acquired Crimea and also controlled the Donbas region dominated by pro-Russian people in eastern Ukraine, there is no need to invade the entire Ukraine. But Putin just invaded. In addition to value factors, its invasion also has the effect of Putin's risk-taking mentality of "doing nothing for others". Putin's daring to invade Ukraine in an all-round way is a demonstration of personal qualities such as "bravery", "toughness", aggressiveness, and "not afraid of sacrifice". If he wins, it will further consolidate Putin's "tough guy" image, gain more admiration from both inside and outside Russia, and greater loyalty from personnel in Russia's powerful institutions.

    And the unexpected setback of the Russian army in Ukraine this year hit Putin hard. But Putin is unwilling to change course, but decides to be tough to the end and continue to increase the scale, in order to revive his life and regain his self-confidence and authority.

    From the perspective of his logic and interests, it is indeed reasonable for Putin to do so. Because once he backs down and admits failure, not only will he not be able to explain to the hundreds of millions of people in Russia, but he may even have a hard time dying. And continue to fight the war, hoping that Ukraine and the West can't bear the casualties and compromise, Putin still has the possibility of a decent end.

   However, the price of Putin's stubbornness and continued fighting needs to be borne by others, including Russian soldiers and civilians. During the war in the past year, tens of thousands of Russian soldiers have been killed and many more injured and disabled. Unlike the Great Patriotic War against Nazi Germany in history, this war is unjust and unnecessary. These dead or disabled Russian troops have become cannon fodder for political careerists.

   One of the masterpieces of Nobel Prize winner Alexievich is "Zinc Skin Child Soldiers". coffins were made of zinc). Today, during the Russia-Ukraine war, many Russian soldiers who were hit by "Hippocampus" rockets have no bones or only broken arms and limbs. It is difficult for their mothers to even see the last side of their children. The unjust war of the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989 resulted in the death of 15,000 Soviet soldiers and tens of thousands of injuries. In the less just and unnecessary Putin’s war of invasion of Ukraine, the number of casualties exceeded Total Soviet casualties in the ten-year Soviet-Afghan War. These tragedies are all caused by Putin's desire to satisfy his personal ambitions and display his so-called "tough guy" image.

   And Putin is recruiting more Russians, including middle-aged people, to join the army, just sending more cannon fodder to the front. As the war continues, more families are broken up. The mothers, wives, and children of the war dead can only wash their faces with tears and lose their loved ones forever. And this is what Putin, who emphasizes "family values" very much, has done.

   And the war hurts not only the soldiers, but Russian civilians who have not joined the army also suffer because of Putin's war. Since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russia has suffered severe international sanctions and its economy has declined further. After Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine this year, Europe and the United States have stepped up sanctions, and Russia's economic and trade relations with the West have been almost completely cut off. Russia has also been expelled from many important international organizations and transnational cooperation systems, such as the United States and the European Union have kicked Russian financial institutions out of the SWIFT system. This not only makes Russia's major banks unable to operate their international business normally, but ordinary citizens are also unable to withdraw money normally.

   Years of sanctions, especially the various powerful sanctions in the last year, as well as the military expenditure caused by the war, have put Russia's economy and people's livelihood in great difficulty. Residents in many areas have to line up to buy cheap food to meet their food and clothing as they did in the Soviet era and Yeltsin era. Today, Russia's national GDP is only equivalent to the output value of Guangdong Province in China, which shows the extent of its economic depression. Although Russia's economic and people's livelihood has already been so bad, mainly because of autocracy and corruption, the war has obviously exacerbated the predicament.

   Of course, Ukraine also paid a heavy price for fighting the invasion. Tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians were killed or disabled, many towns were destroyed by artillery fire, and people lost their property and were displaced. In order to support Ukraine, the West has also endured a great financial burden and political pressure. The Russo-Ukrainian war has also made the already uneasy international situation more turbulent, and Europe and the world have cast a heavy shadow because of this war.

   In short, the people of all countries, including the Russian military and civilians, bear the price of Putin's toughness and risk-taking. For the sake of personal power and interests, Putin did not hesitate to let more than 100,000 Russian and Ukrainian soldiers and civilians die in war disasters, and he refused to stop, which can be described as extremely shameless.

   What needs to be explained is that Putin and even the entire ruling group he leads are not really not afraid of sacrifice, honest and self-disciplined, and bravely dedicated to the country and the nation. On the contrary, the entire Russian ruling group, including Putin himself, is highly corrupt, extortionate, extravagant and lustful. Putin himself owns mansions, luxury watches that far exceed his income, and luxury yachts overseas. His two daughters also have a lot of wealth from unknown sources. Other officials, military police, and oligarchs loyal to Putin are also extremely corrupt. Can Putin's ruling clique, which is so corrupt and depraved, truly fight and sacrifice for the people?

   But in Russia, China, and many countries around the world, many people adore a strongman like Putin and admire his barbaric and brutal actions. Such psychology is ugly, but it is common. Lu Xun, a Chinese thinker, commented on it in his essay "Napoleon and Suina":

   "I know a doctor who is busy, but he is often attacked by sick people. Once, he explained to himself and sighed: If you want to be praised, it is better to kill someone. You put Napoleon and Suina (Note: Suina, now translated as Edward) Jenner, a British medical scientist known as the "Father of Immunology") went to compare... I think this is true. Napoleon's record has nothing to do with us, but we always respect his heroes. Even As for our ancestors being slaves of the Mongols, we still flattered Genghis; judging from the current wording, the yellow people are already inferior, but we still boasted about Hitler.

Because the three of them are all disaster stars who kill people without blinking an eye. the

    But when we look at our arms, there are probably a few scars, which are the traces of cowpox, which saved us from the dangerous smallpox. Since this method of vaccinia came into being, I don’t know how many children have been saved in the world—although some of them will still serve as cannon fodder for heroes when they grow up, but who of us remembers the name of the inventor Sui Na? the

    The killers are destroying the world, the saviors are repairing it, but the princes who are qualified as cannon fodder are always flattering the killers. the

    If this view does not change, I think the world will continue to be destroyed, and people will still suffer. "

   Lu Xun's criticism of people worshiping cruel tyrants but ignoring those who healed diseases and saved lives a hundred years ago is still thought-provoking. It is understandable for people to worship Hitler and Genghis Khan at the beginning of the 20th century when empires were fighting for hegemony; but in the 21st century when peace and development are the theme and human rights are advocated, there are still so many people in China and Russia who worship Putin. A dictator who suppresses internally and expands externally, with blood on his hands, is utterly ugly and self-deprecating.

   Russians have a long history of worshiping strongmen, and love war and expansion (even if most Russians are just cannon fodder in internal and external wars led by strongmen). Putin's ability to become the leader of Russia and remain in power for more than 20 years is also inseparable from the Russians' respect for strongmen. The dictator and the people make each other. There are such kind of leaders, there are such kind of people; there are such kind of people, there are such kind of leaders. Russia has fallen into a cycle of despotism and turmoil in the past 100 years, which is closely related to the Russians' advocacy of violence, worship of strongmen, and contempt for peace and contracts.

   Now that Russia is mired in the quagmire of war and international sanctions, it is also reaping the fruits of its own to some extent. If Russians cannot generally recognize the evil consequences of worshiping strongmen and violence, and do not pursue the establishment of a democratic and law-abiding and pluralistic and inclusive society, even if Putin falls, the new ones who will be replaced will still be brutal figures like Putin and Stalin, and the tragedy of history will continue. will be repeated continuously.

    In China, from the elite to the common people, there are also many people who worship political strongmen and even autocratic tyrants. Chinese people not only worship their own tyrants such as Qin Shihuang and Mao Zedong, but also highly respect Russian dictators such as Stalin and Putin. In China, from the top scholars in the humanities and social sciences, including researchers from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, to the bottom of society such as migrant workers, many of them praised Putin.

   If it is said that praising domestic dictators is often a last resort under political pressure, praising foreign tyrants can better reflect the mentality of Chinese people Mu Qiang. Those elites in the system who are close to Putin may be like-minded, but the admiration for Putin by ordinary people who are only "qualified to be cannon fodder", especially the people at the bottom, is pure ignorance and stubbornness.

    In the past decade or so, the trend of social Darwinism has been quite prevalent in China. The aforementioned "Three-Body Problem" is to some extent an ode to social Darwinism, and the character Thomas Vader in the book is the most social character. The popularity of "Three-Body Problem" in China, the sinister, vicious and tyrannical Thomas Vader is admired by many Chinese people, and its opposite character, Cheng Xin, who is sincere, kind and gentle, is called the "Holy Mother" by the Chinese people and lashed out. This is the Darwinian thought of Chinese society. popular performance.

    In reality, Putin is most in line with the "personality" of Thomas Vader, and the motives of Chinese people's pursuit of it are of course the same. Chinese people praise Putin's daring to confront the West, especially his anti-American actions, and praise Putin's frequent talk about Russia's nuclear weapons capabilities. As for Putin’s suppression of dissidents and ethnic minorities, and creating all kinds of fake news to disrupt the world, these people either don’t know about it, or they regard it as “innocuous” things, and many more praise these behaviors openly and secretly, as they have ruled the country , Maintain social stability, and influence the performance of the international situation.

   Chinese people's admiration for Putin and other tyrants and strongmen reflects the proliferation of Darwinism in Chinese society and the corruption of people's hearts. They regard brutal and unscrupulous successful people such as Putin and Stalin as idols, but they insult politicians such as Gorbachev who advocate humanity, democracy and defend peace, reflecting the general cognitive dislocation and moral decline of the Chinese people .

    In addition to China and Russia, many people in many other countries in the world also support Putin. Some motives are similar to those of China and Russia, that is, out of admiration for political strongmen; some motives are recognition of Putin's insistence on sticking to traditional values. For example, the right-wing and extreme right-wing forces in Europe and the United States, because of Putin's emphasis on ethnicity, religion, and family, as well as his criticism of secularism and pluralism, women's rights, and LGBT rights, have become like-minded and become their foreign fans. In the political world, Trump in the United States, Marie Le Pen in France's "National Front", and Orban in Hungary are all "fans" of Putin.

    The racism/extreme nationalism, religious conservatism, and adherence to traditional culture, especially family values, advocated by Putin and the right wing in Europe and the United States, although some of them have some truth and value, are in the final analysis against the universal principles of progress and peace. What is valuable is strongly exclusive and narrow, which seriously damages the rights and dignity of vulnerable groups such as women, LGBT groups, and ethnic minorities.

   What's more, even the nationalities, religions, and family values ​​and interests that Putin advocates to defend are actually corrupt under Putin's Russia. Defending the interests of the country and the nation should allow citizens of every country to enjoy rights and freedom, and compatriots of every nation to live in prosperity and well-being. However, in a state of internal dictatorship and external hostility in Russia, corruption and poverty are serious, national rights are lost, and livelihoods are difficult. Is this what nationalists who really love their country and fellow citizens like to see?

   In terms of religion, although Putin keeps emphasizing the importance of the Orthodox faith and raising the status of the Orthodox Church, the Russian people are generally poor in spirit and their moral standards are not high. The people advocate violence and money, and have not learned much from religion. The top Russian Orthodox Church leaders, including the Patriarch of the Moscow Orthodox Church, have also become Putin's pawns and tools to maintain autocracy.

    As for the importance and protection of the family, it is indeed necessary. However, the social turmoil and corruption of people in Russia under Putin's rule, especially the rampant crimes (such as the extremely high murder rate), don't they reflect to a certain extent that Russians generally have family disharmony and family education failure? Putin has been in power for more than 20 years. Russians have not really become loving family members and harmonious clans. The rate of domestic violence and other crimes involving family members (especially the rate of vicious crimes such as killing and sexual assault against relatives) ranks among the world Foremost (such as the report of the Women's Protection Organization, the domestic violence rate in Russia is as high as 40%, and many of them are serious domestic violence that causes injury and disability; on average, every 10 women in the world are killed, including one Russian woman. And Russia only Accounting for less than 2% of the world's population, that is, the proportion of female victims is more than five times the global average). The Congress (State Duma) controlled by the Putin regime has rejected the anti-domestic violence law submitted by some members of the parliament more than 40 times, and also "decriminalized" domestic violence in 2017, and will no longer pursue relatively minor domestic violence. Criminal responsibility.

   On the contrary, although Western countries such as Europe and the United States oppose extreme nationalism, they also relatively disapprove of religious conservatism, and the deconstruction of family values ​​is quite popular (in fact, only a very small number of people in the West completely deconstruct and oppose family values, and the vast majority of Western public Recognize the important and positive role of the family, and conservative forces that advocate family values ​​​​are often in power), but the rights of nationals/overseas Chinese of the same ethnic group are generally well protected at home and abroad, and people of different religious beliefs can participate enthusiastically under the freedom of religious belief Activities such as fellowship and the relationship between church members are relatively equal and harmonious. The proportion of happy families in European and American countries is much higher than that in Russia, which can be seen from the fact that Russian women are generally subjected to domestic violence. Russian teenagers also grow up in a violent environment. On the contrary, European and American countries have strict anti-domestic violence laws and protection and relief mechanisms for women and children, and other developed countries except the United States have extremely high social security. Many families in Europe and the United States still have spare capacity to adopt abandoned babies and orphans from China, Russia, Asia, Africa, Latin America and other countries, so that more children in the world can feel the warmth of family. These are things that Russia under the Putin regime, which advocates nationalism, religious conservatism, and family values, cannot achieve.

    On the issue of dealing with international disputes, the new international order led by European and American countries also provides relatively fair and peaceful solutions. It is true that European and American countries are not completely fair and non-discriminatory in dealing with relevant disputes, especially issues involving major conflicts of interest, and sometimes use violence to resolve international disputes, but it is obviously better than Russia, China and other countries that refuse to abide by universal human rights and international order. state power. The international rules and order in today's world are not fair and reasonable, and it will be difficult to be completely fair in the future, but they are always better than a jungle order where there are no rules, contempt for contracts, and only relying on power and shady means to determine winners and losers. Putin's use of unnecessary force and nuclear blackmail has caused direct and indirect harm to people all over the world, including the Russian people. Putin's "toughness" and "courage" are trying toAchieved, is not a legitimate appeal worthy of praise, but an ugly act that harms others and benefits the Russian people, and goes against reason and justice.Purpose。

   If it uses nuclear weapons, it will surely lead to the destruction of the world. Even if it is only used locally, it will cause the loss of at least hundreds of thousands of lives and cause irreversible damage to the local ecological environment. Therefore, Putin's frequent threats to use nuclear weapons are not praiseworthy "bravery", but reflect that he is a rogue with power. Putin frequently plays the "chicken's game", which can easily lead to misjudgment by all parties involved in the conflict, as well as mutual stimulation and overweight, leading to huge disasters, causing tens of thousands of deaths and injuries, and possibly leading to the destruction of the world. It engages in zero-sum games at every turn, at least one of the parties will become a victim, or even lose out, instead of a peaceful win-win situation. Even if there is no war, this kind of game has poisoned interpersonal relationships and worsened international relations, leading to more hatred, suspicion, and conflicts, which is not conducive to mutual trust and harmony between people, nor to international friendship, peace, and cooperation. Therefore, instead of admiring Putin's strength, bravery, and "man", the world should cast aside him together.

    In fact, although Putin claims to be a political strongman and always shows his psychological strength, his heart is fearful and weak. Moreover, because Putin always uses various violent and insidious methods to confront internal and external opponents and potential threats, his psychology has been seriously distorted and his spirit has been traumatized. His perception of reality and ability to control things are not as good as normal democracy The politicians of the country are even inferior to ordinary civilians who are physically and mentally healthy in some respects.

   For example, when Putin launched the Russia-Ukraine war, he seriously misjudged the position of the West, underestimated the strength of the West to assist Ukraine, and underestimated the fighting spirit of the Ukrainian military and civilians headed by Zelensky. At the same time, he overestimated the combat power of the Russian army and Russia’s man's enthusiasm for war. Putin's series of misunderstandings have become an important reason why he blindly launched the war and led to the disastrous defeat of the Russian army.

    And after Putin's defeat and retreat in the Russian army, his performance when receiving subordinates and visiting foreign dignitaries made the world see his weakness more intuitively. For example, when he holds a meeting with his subordinates, he uses an extra-long conference table and talks with his subordinates tens of meters away, which is obviously because he is afraid of being attacked by his subordinates.

    When meeting foreign dignitaries such as Iran's supreme leader Khamenei, Putin lost his condescending aura due to the defeat of the Russian army, and instead listened to the sermons with a humble appearance. Putin once met Turkish President Erdogan when he was in power, and he was deliberately late to let Erdogan wait. But when Putin failed in the war against Ukraine in July this year, Erdogan did the same, making Putin wait under the spotlight for a long time with embarrassment before coming out to meet with him. These all reflect the "strength" of the strongman Putin, which can only be shown when he is in power, and he is more humble than ordinary people when he is weak. This also reflects the bullying nature of people like Putin, who are arrogant when they gain power and frustrated when they lose power.

    Putin was born in the KGB and has long been involved in the intriguing intelligence field. He has a weak sense of morality and strong cunning. And after he entered politics, he was able to thrive in the already corrupt and dirty Russian political arena, relying on his violence and insidiousness. But it came to power with violence and insidiousness, and of course it has many enemies, and it has killed countless regime insiders and outside dissidents. Those military and political strongmen who are loyal to Putin are more afraid of Putin than sincere love. Once Putin loses power, it is entirely possible to make things worse.

    When Putin uses various insidious means to deal with others, he also understands the horror of various insidious means better than ordinary people, and his inner fear of others and even the whole world is stronger. For example, Putin knew that former German Chancellor Merkel was bitten by a dog when she was a child and was afraid of dogs, but he deliberately let the dog into the meeting room during a meeting and let the dog walk in front of Merkel. Merkel tried to stay calm to avoid a public gaffe. Putin's behavior is just one example of his insidious and rogue tactics. When Putin treats others in this way, he is also afraid that he will be treated in the same way. During the Russia-Ukraine war, he met his subordinates across a long table, which is a clear proof of his fear of being plotted by someone close to him.

    In short, President Putin is quite similar to the gangsters in the underworld. While causing fear and harm to others, he is also deeply afraid that others will treat him in the same or even more sinister way.

    Because Putin is afraid that others will "return the body in his own way", so he is always preventing being killed, and his mentality is bound to be distorted. Behind his "tough guy" mask is his disordered spirit and helpless psychology. After Putin committed terrorist atrocities such as assassinations and wars, he seemed resolute and fearless, but he was actually terrified. His own frightened mind could not maintain reason under heavy pressure, which would inevitably lead him to engage in various irrational behaviors. However, he has great power and says nothing in Russia, which will only make him more out of control and do whatever he wants.

   These also reflect that Putin and similar strongmen and social Darwinists are trying to achieve ethnic and international peace (let’s say they really hope for peace) and social stability and harmony through purely violent means of terror and violence. is impossible. Because even they themselves will lose control and even collapse under violence and high pressure, instead of being as resolute, brave and immovable as they claim to be. Even if there is no loss of control and collapse, too much energy will be spent on mutual harm and guarding against others, and there will be no ability to build and create, let alone achieve economic and social prosperity.

   When Putin concentrates all his energy on power struggles, harming people and preventing victims, and suffers physically and mentally, it is difficult for him to have time and energy to deeply understand the real situation at home and abroad, and he cannot calm down to think about serious national affairs. It will be distorted accordingly, and the governance of the country will inevitably make frequent mistakes. For various reasons, the subordinates dare not openly raise objections (in fact, the mentality of the entire Russian top management is similar to that of Putin, with fierce internal fighting, entrapment and guard against each other, and corruption and degeneration. Not many people have real talents and think about the country. There are not many constructive solutions to deal with domestic and foreign affairs). As a result, Russia experienced constant setbacks and frequent disasters in both domestic and foreign affairs, military affairs and economics. The disastrous defeat of the Russian army in the Russo-Ukraine War is only the most prominent example.

   Putin launched the Russia-Ukraine war. Apart from the misjudgment that he thought he would win easily, there may also be more secret inner movements. For a dictator like Putin who has ruled Russia for more than two decades, everything in the country and even many material and non-material enjoyments abroad can be easily obtained. But this will make him feel more lonely, lost in life, and gradually alienated mentally.

    At the same time, as he got older, he became more and more afraid of death. Even if a dictator is invincible, he can achieve various ideal pursuits at any cost and defeat all opponents who challenge his power, but he cannot avoid the inevitable outcome of death. Because dictators can do whatever they want and indulge in extravagance, they are very attached to life and long to possess power, money, beauty and other resources and interests forever.

   Therefore, dictators will care about and fear death more than most other people, and thus fall into deep anxiety, triggering a series of abnormal behaviors. In ancient China, Qin Shihuang and Han Wudi unified China and achieved brilliant cultural and martial arts. They made avoiding death an important goal, such as doing everything possible to obtain the immortality medicine in their later years. Emperor Wu of the Han Dynasty also made perverse and paradoxical actions such as killing his subjects indiscriminately after he failed in his longevity attempt. Tang Taizong Li Shimin, who was considered a wise monarch, also became irritable in his later years, and his treatment of ministers changed from being respectful to being mean. The series of disasters created by the CCP leader Mao Zedong in his later years that led to national turmoil and disasters from the top of the CCP to the general public also had similar reasons.

   Putin is no exception. Putin, who has long been immersed in an environment of violence, intrigue, and assassination, has exhausted his efforts to defeat all kinds of enemies and has come to power so far, but he has to face the completely insurmountable obstacle of death. This will inevitably aggravate his anxiety and uneasiness, and like Qin Shihuang, Han Wudi, Mao Zedong and others, he vented his anxiety and covered up his fear by abusing power. Launching a war against Ukraine gave Putin something to pin his ideals on and divert his attention from. Coupled with the factors of values ​​and real interests, this unnecessary war started under Putin's iron-fisted decision-making.

    Of course, there are many speculations in the above, but they are not groundless. Many Western media and commentators have sorted out, discussed, and speculated about Putin's life, values, and psychology. For example, the "New York Times" and "The Economist" have a large number of news reports and commentary articles about Putin in recent years, and TV stations in various countries also have many documentaries about Putin, as well as direct interviews with Putin. Complex Putin, and based on this, explore his more secretive heart. Combined with the precedents of other dictators/monarchs in Chinese and foreign history, it can prove the rationality and possibility of the above inference.

   No matter what Putin's heart is, his behavior of waging war and his attitude of being stubborn to the end all reflect his brutal and evil nature. Since Putin came to power, although he has sometimes abided by international rules and participated constructively in the international community, he has often disrupted the international order and resorted to force. And in the country, it also uses various methods to eliminate political opponents and suppress opposition groups. It does not hesitate to kill the rebels, or at least send them to prison, or use various shady methods to harass, threaten, and humiliate the rebels and their families.

   Putin's domestic dictatorship and external aggression and expansion have caused great harm and loss to Russia, many of Russia's neighbors, Europe, the world and people from all over the world. The success of dictatorship and expansion not only failed to satisfy Putin, but his appetite grew and his methods became more brutal. However, his series of internal suppression and external invasion successes and related atrocities have instead become the capital used by Putin to flaunt his "tough guy" image, and have also been praised and imitated by many rulers and common people around the world.

    If Putin’s gangster-like behavior cannot be stopped and sent to the Russian domestic court (after the realization of democratization) or the international court, not only Putin himself will continue to do evil, but other people who admire and imitate him will also be more serious. If they gain power, they will treat the victims of these powerful and domineering people as victims and stepping stones on the road to success, and destroy, use, and ridicule them. World civilization will also be destroyed in the jungle of social Darwinism, especially for vulnerable groups. will suffer more. Treat this kind of "tough guy", "win forever"People who show their image, are cunning and insidious, and have cruel methods can only be brought to justice from the physical level to the spiritual level.Only by deconstructing its words, deeds and heart can it be knocked down from the altar, end its evil, and prevent future generations from worshiping and imitating.

    Therefore, the people of the world, including the Russian people, should actively participate in the actions to overthrow Putin's dictatorship. The most important thing to do now is to completely crush Putin's plot to occupy Ukraine. The next step is to support the Russian people (including the military and police who are willing to oppose Putin's rule) to resist Putin's rule in various ways, and finally end his dictatorship, bring him to trial, and make him plead guilty to justice. Only in this way can Putin's arrogance be completely extinguished, and the brutal and insidious people in the world who try to emulate or are imitating Putin can be attacked and warned, and world peace and democracy can be maintained.

    To successfully overthrow Putin's rule and prevent Putin from using nuclear weapons or committing other anti-human rights and anti-human behaviors requires careful planning and a multi-pronged approach. One of the aspects is to do more research on Putin's mentality to understand his thought dynamics and behavioral motives, so as to provide a reference for predicting his next move.

   Not only Putin, but also the various thoughts and behaviors of dictators/military and political strongmen in various countries in the world can explore some valuable things from the spiritual and psychological aspects. Those who try to end the tyranny and aggressive expansion of various countries, and promote democracy and peace should take the study of the mental and psychological dynamics of these strongmen as an important means to help recognize and understand the perpetrators, and "prescribe the right medicine" to deal with them their feasible options.

                                                      Wang Qingmin

                                                 January 11, 2023

                                                          231 Year of the Republican Calendar Snow Moon Salt Day