抖音Tik [email protected]谈中国经济

无意中刷到他对另一位up主eddieligersmith对中国集中精力办大事(引用Eddie的话是 利用central planning and giant private market, 中国是经济增速最快的国家)的批判观点,觉得理由中肯,对时政英语也有帮主,所以,原汁原味转载于此。

So China is actually the 19th fastest growing economy in the world, but the U.S. is the 100th.

I spoke to Marcelo Guigale, a former poverty reduction director at the World Bank, and he was adamant that his Chinese counterparts are working to make sure that the Chinese economy develops in a way that reduces poverty.

But we also talked about how China faces several structural issues to becoming a global superpower the way we talk them today.

The first issue is that to be a superpower you really need to be able to project force beyond your own borders the way that the U.S. does, and China has many internal issues that prevent it from doing that. They have internal sovereignty disputes with Tibet, Taiwan, and HK, and they have further disputes with Xinjiang province and every major city. They have volatile border disputes with India, Pakistan, and all over the South China Sea. They have border disputes with nations they don’t even technically border.

this, along with the issue of Politicized Investment mechanism, which i'll talk about later, makes me very hesitant about the idea that China will be a global superpower in the way that we think of the U.S. being one.

A second issue with the Chinese economy is that it has a heavily politicized investment mechanism that has led it to make investments that over past a few decades haven't really planned out. Specifically is the past couple of decades, these investments have been made infrastructure projects that aren't being used.

In 2014, Xu Ce, a Chinese economist at the National Development and Reform commission said that in 2009-2013 these types of investments have made up NEARlY half Chinese investment in their own economy.(国家发改委的徐策和王元不久前指出,1997到2013年中国投资的36%是无效投资,其中2009到2013年无效投资达42万亿。按照他们提供的无效投资数额,我计算的结果是,2009到2013年全国固定资产投资(扣除设备购置数额)为127万亿,无效投资约占三分之一。投资的来源无非是银行贷款或发行理财产品,无效投资就是坏账,短短5年里银行新增坏账40多万亿,仅此一项便占2014年底中国金融机构各项贷款余额的一半。这种情形若发生在政府不盲目干预经济、银行均为私营的自由经济国家,金融危机早就爆发了。转自BBC )

An Shen, an economist in Beijing, says that these parts of investments aren't really going to cause Chinese economy collapse, and i generally agree with him. But it does mean that a lot of those projects that have been driving up GDP and thus China's growth won't actual be used to benefit Chinese citizens and they won't be used to project power.

And this process has evolved into investing in tech that will probably obsolete before it finds a use. And i haven't even mentioned the neo-colonial relationships that China has with the West wherein we appropriate large parts of their GDP growth.



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