还是靠政府当“阔少爷”

野兽按：虽然天涯博客算是国内尺度最松的博客网站了，但是还是有不少文章发布后被隐藏。自2006年2月22日受李国盛邀请，要天涯开办【陈寿文专栏】，至今已经十四年了。不过自从2013年有了微信公号【心灵自由】之后，就很少使用这个博客，只是偶尔想起会去那里发一篇微信公号发布不了的文章。刚才看了一下数据。

• 访问：36511810 次
• 日志: 1400篇
• 评论: 5163 个
• 留言: 76 个
• 建站时间: 2006-2-22

后台总共有74篇文章被隐藏。今天开始，把这74篇翻出来。站友们，我又要开始刷屏了。

18.还是靠政府当“阔少爷”

作者：陈寿文 提交日期：2009-7-2 22:41:00 | 分类:生活 | 访问量：1084

特稿：还是靠政府当“阔少爷”

多维社记者纪群编译报导

如今有关世界经济最热门的讨论，并不是美国的命运如何；而是中国的命运如何：中国会成为2009年全球危机中最悲惨的受害者，还是最成功的幸存者呢？

到目前为止，随着来自这位亚洲巨人的所有新消息都指向着成功，所有关于“美国经济衰退会导致中国经济萧条”的老眼光和假设都被甩到了一边。长期以来，一直依赖对美出口贸易的中国经济，如今继续保持强壮的增长势头，尽管出口贸易近乎崩溃，光是今年5月份就下跌了26.4％。这种状况的出现，源于中国内需的增长，5月份的零售总额上涨15.2％，房屋和汽车销售量也大幅上升。对一些人来说，这是中国开始进入新的发展阶段的证据，成长为一个消费社会，拥有足以媲美美国，成为世界头号消费者的财富量，在某些方面，中国已经做到了。问题是，这场由消费推动的增长并不是个人消费，因为中国消费群体近几年来一直在“隐居”。真正的大手大脚的“阔少爷”（Big Spender）是中国政府。

新闻周刊刊登国际经济和商业版主编傅娜女士（Rana Foroohar）一篇题为“中国的阔少爷”（China’s Big Spender）的文章。文章说道，房屋、汽车和许多方面的销售都在增长，不过，付钱的不是消费者，而是政府。中国经济在复苏，这是货真价实、千真万确的，但是那是由国家花钱买来的。

世界上没有哪一个政党可以像中国共产党现在这样放肆挥霍，他们手里有近2兆美元的外汇储备，而且，拥有一种完全没有政党竞争对手或者检查机构约束的预算权力。经济刺激计划占国民生产总值的比例，中国是4％，美国是2％，中国是美国的2倍，而且，中国无需向外国借贷，就可以实现。长期以来，中国经济的增长，一直离不开中国政府投资推动，而且，自今年初起，投资额又增加了30％，其中75％的资金是投在基础设施建设上；修铁路和公路的开支在过去12个月里上涨了2倍以上。新的居民小区、公共大会堂和健身场所都在各省份和大城市里拔地而起。中央和地方政府都通过增加政府补助来支援停工的工厂和重新培训工人，而且，在困难地区提高了收入补贴。新的政府贷款，以及政府让银行增加贷款的命令，帮助刺激了房屋的销售，引发房地产业的小高潮。国家甚至直接向消费者发送购物券，特别是在农村地区，可以用来买车、买电冰箱和其他商品，许多购物券都限于消费，而且，只对购买廉价的中国品牌的产品才有效。就像一名国营银行的高级主管说的：“都是政府在承担起一切。”

新闻周刊的这篇文章说，是国家的隐藏的手让人错误估计了中国企业对美国出口贸易依旧依赖补贴的程度。

在受经济危机影响最大的地区，例如，南方生产大省的广东，代表了中国八分之一的财富和四分之一的出口贸易量。在经济繁荣时期建造的5星级旅馆现在都是空荡荡的，与此同时，职业介绍所都挤满了失业的民工。在最近的一个晚上，珠江河似乎都黯淡下来，许多往常开着耀眼霓虹彩灯的河边旅馆与餐馆都为了“省电”，而把灯关掉了，广东省政府主管外贸事务的官员表示，近几个月广东省因为全球经济低迷损失惨重。“我们对出口的依赖性仍然非常大，特别是对美国，”他表示，当地40％的出口商品都是运往美国的。

就在人们纷纷议论中国的中产阶层消费者即将取代在沃尔玛超级市场购物的妈妈们时，这说的是老实话。中国人均收入大约只是美国人的十分之一，2007年的总消费量大约为1.7兆美元，相比下，美国却是12兆美元。珠江三角洲的地方官员们说，他们现在正在向内地寻找销路，在湖南或者四川省向国人推销那些他们曾经在海外销售的电器、珠宝和鞋子。可是，在那里的销售额与出口相比，不值得一提。

如今，越来越多的人觉得，美国市场需要几年时间才会反弹，与此同时，中国市场要做恢复昔日荣景则还需要很长的时间。“甚至在这次金融危机之前，我们就已经知道，我们需要超越美国市场，但是，要开拓出中国本土市场，至少要5年，甚至8年时间。”华建集团的副总经理林艾伦（Allan S.K. Lam，音译）说，这家鞋厂生产众多名牌鞋子，如玖熙（Nine West）、凯尼斯·柯尔(Kenneth Cole)和寇兹（Coach）等

更要命的是，近年来，中国消费者在整个经济体系中一直扮演着一个不怎么起眼的角色。很长一段时间里，私人消费已经呈现稳定下滑的趋势，占国民生产总值的比例，从1968年的60％，一路降到了2008年的36％，这是一个与中国蓬勃壮大的中产消费阶层的形象不相符的趋势。造成这种状况的最大原因，是民众越来越担忧缺乏社会安全保障系统的国家现状（退休金很少；医疗保健又意味着就医个人付费比例高）。而缺乏自由，可能也是原因之一：卡耐基基金会最近的一份有关“政治自由和消费”两者之间关系的研究发现，过去20年里，自由越来越受限制的国家，例如中国、伊朗和委内瑞拉，消费都大幅下降了。

中国消费者的裹足不前，使得像摩根史坦利的亚洲区总裁史蒂芬·罗奇(Stephen Roach)这样的人担心不已，他认为如果中国真正地想超越出口导向的增长模式，本国消费就必须达到国民生产总值的50％。而目前的“旧模式并没有改变，”史蒂芬·罗奇说，他还表示，到今年年底时，政府的投资很可能会从国民生产总值的40％上升至45％，到达一种“我们前所未见的”程度。即便是在二战后重建时的日本，他们的国家投资也仅仅是国民生产总值的34％。而且，日本当时在以那些资金创造出两位数的增长率，而中国领导人承认，今年他们能够达到7－8％的目标就非常幸运了。

广东当地人说，老百姓们的观点没有政府预测的那么乐观。“我曾与当地的几名厂主交谈，他们告诉我，如果他们不能在6周内拿到订单，他们就很可能倒闭，”广东社会科学院从事区域和企业竞争研究研究中心主任丁力说。

当然，政府总是可以进行干涉的。只需要看看深圳的状况，如果那里的市场自由发展，现状很可能就会像东莞一样糟糕，据一些人估计，东莞大约每10家工厂就有1家已经倒闭。相比下，仅仅97公里外的深圳则是另一番景象。

深圳是政府的支持可以如何重塑一座城市的范例。30年前，这里只是一片水田。然后，邓小平决定把这里改造为制造业基地，如今，这里的经济规模已经相当于繁华的香港的一半，当然香港发展的历史更悠久和更加富有魅力。中国政府最新的决定是把中国版纳斯达克扎营刺地，刺激当地更多的新发展。如今在深圳，可以见到的许多中产阶级享用的奢侈场所，例如，空调购物中心、仿迪斯尼的周末渡假村、以及禁烟的咖啡吧，都是在华侨城OCT创意园建造的，这是中央政府拥有的最早的地产公司。自1985年以来，该公司已经开发了价值87亿美元的房地产。不过，如今许多公共空间依旧闲置着。在最近的一个晚上，一个布满了中国版西方高档品牌雅格狮丹（Aquascutum）、雨果.博斯（Hugo Boss）的巨大的加州风格的购物中心里，只吸引了少数稀稀疏疏的来客。

尽管如此，中国仍然继续在建新房。一座名为波托菲诺（Portofino）的国有的豪华公寓小区楼盘把意大利的《甜蜜生活》（La Dolce Vita）带到了中国南部，小区内布置着鹅卵石街道、宽敞的广场，和每小时报时的赤陶钟塔。一名政府代表称，这里80％的公寓已经入住，并说小区内的3至5万美元的小公寓套间都是卖给受过良好教育的上流社会的中国精英，他们许多人，都是回国寻求更好工作机会的海归派。可是，小区内的广场却都已经荒废，而且，小区内的法式点心店里的留言薄上的留言都是英文。虽然，官员们不愿意发言评价，但是，显然小区内不少房产似乎都是西方人士在占用或者租用。

中国高度中央集权的国家体制此前也曾通过花钱让中国走上复苏的道路，在1997-98年的亚洲金融风暴期间，和在2001年互联网泡沫破灭之际，都是如此。但是，在这两次例子中，政府资金只是应急的，用意是在全球经济（和出口贸易）恢复前拖延时间。这一次有点不同。美国，以及从一个较小的程度上看，欧洲都在走在经济恢复的道路上。可是，中国的昔日出口贸易荣景不会再来了，这意味这2,000多万已经失业的中国民工可能也一去不返。事实上，瑞士联合银行(UBS)估计，随着出口贸易继续下跌，今年中国的失业人口可能会再增1,500万。不过这并不就会如同许多人所预计的那样，一定会转变为社会不满的动荡。民工们会带着比他们当初离乡时多很多的财富，返回到他们的村子。但是，从中期到长期来看，失业人口增多会提高中国寻求新经济模式的压力。“我无法相信它会发生，”史蒂芬·罗奇说。“这是为什么我担心明年的增长率会再次下降的原因。” 乐观主义者则强调北京钱包的力量。“中国共产党现在是世界上现金储备最多的金融机构；根本没有任何财政上的限制，”上海里昂证券(CLSA)的分析师、知名中国乐观主义者安迪?罗斯曼(Andy Rothman)预测，明年的增长率会在7％到9％之间。

新闻周刊的这篇文章指出，大多数的经济学家都赞同专制国家在信用危机期间拥有治理优势的观点，因为在此类环境中，没有政治或者司法障碍阻拦政府花钱。中国最大的国营银行之一的一位管理人员就这么说：“政府叫我们借钱，我们就借！”可是，已经有人开始担心这批新贷款的去向。穆迪和其他的信用评估公司担心，鉴于当前的银行贷款大潮，中国不良贷款的数量会在未来上升。而且，由于大多数的新贷款都是借给企业，而不是消费者，这些钱很有可能只会在企业间周转，不会流入到最需要这笔钱的消费者当中。虽然，消费者开支的增长数据看起来很高，像安迪?罗斯曼这样的乐观者甚至说这个数据被夸大到真实程度的2倍以上，因为把政府在零售店铺的购物也算在数据中。

中国已经开始创建一个社会安全网，这会给与民众更多的信心去花钱，而不是存钱，前提是它没有那么多的漏洞。几个月前，北京通过了一项1,270亿美元的国家保健计划，预计在3年内实现。在中国，这仅相当于每人不到50美元，“少得可怜，”史蒂芬·罗奇说。与此同时，在中国社会保险基金管理下的资金只有820亿美元，每工人低于100美元。经济学家认为，这个数据应该立即增加2倍，而且，中国有能力做到。虽然，北京自2006年以来就一直在谈加强社会安全网的，但总是只说不做。甚至中国人自己，也对温家宝表示的要到2011年时实现全民保健的夸夸其谈表示出怀疑。

新闻周刊的这篇文章最后说道，当然，财富增加也会帮助鼓励消费者增加开销，当前，中国人均国民生产总值仍然只是2000美元。但是，要从廉价、污染重的工业上升至全球性中国品牌，鼓励消费是必须的。现在，大多数中国出口产品仅仅是由中国组装起来，而不是由中国自己设计和创造的，这意味着大多数利润和高薪职位，都属于外资合伙人。遍布广东，政府官员和工厂老板都称他们正在向设计和生产更高级的完成品发展，但是，统计数据则显示出不同的状况。当地大约60％的生产产品仍然属于低端的组装成分。而且，直到中国变为一个先进的出口大国之前，他们会继续处于一个落后的消费社会的状态，资金流量都是在由国家来推动。

-------

China’s Big Spender

Sales of apartments, automobiles, and lots more are rising, but it's the government, not consumers, that's paying.

By Rana Foroohar | NEWSWEEK

Published Jun 27, 2009

From the magazine issue dated Jul 13, 2009

The hottest debate over the world economy is not on the fate of America; it's on the fate of China. Will it be the worst victim, or the most successful survivor, of the global crisis of 2009? So far the news all points to success, as the Asian giant defies the old assumption that an American recession would trigger a Chinese depression. Long dependent on exports to America, China continues to grow strongly despite a collapse of exports, down 26.4 percent in May alone. The reason is growth at home, with retail sales up 15.2 percent in May, and house and car sales taking off. To some, this is evidence that China has hit a new state of development, emerging as a consumer society wealthy enough to rival America as the world's best customer, and in some ways it has. The problem is that the consumer driving the boom is not the individual, because the Chinese shopper has been in retreat in recent years. The real big spender is the government.

China's economic recovery is real, but it's been bought by the state. No political party in the world can spend quite as freely right now as China's Communist Party, with its nearly $2 trillion in reserves and budget authority unchecked by rival parties or institutions. Beijing's stimulus plan amounts to 4 percent of GDP, double America's 2 percent, and China can deliver this booster shot without resorting to foreign borrowing. Government investment has driven the Chinese boom for a long time, and it is up 30 percent since the beginning of the year, with 75 percent of the money going into infrastructure; spending on rail lines and roads has more than doubled over the past 12 months. New community centers, convention halls, and sports facilities are springing up in major cities and provinces. Central and local governments are raising subsidies to support idle factories, retrain workers, and boost income aid in hard-hit areas. New government lending, as well as government orders to banks to raise lending, is helping to spur a surge in apartment sales. The state is even handing out spending vouchers directly to consumers, particularly in rural areas, good for cars, refrigerators, and other products, many with price restrictions that effectively limit the vouchers to inexpensive Chinese brands. As a top executive at one Chinese state-owned bank puts it, "This is all about the government propping things up."

The hidden hand of the state can obscure the degree to which China still depends on subsidized exports to America. Among the hardest-hit areas are those such as Guangdong province, a southern factory hub that represents an eighth of China's wealth and a quarter of its exports. There five-star hotels built in the boom times stand empty, while job centers for laid-off migrant workers are full. On a recent evening, the Pearl River itself seemed dimmer—many of the garish light displays that usually blaze from waterfront inns and restaurants had been turned off "to save electricity," says Su Caifang, deputy director general of the Guangdong Foreign Affairs Office, who notes that the province has suffered greatly in recent months because of the global downturn. "We're still very export-dependent, especially on America," says Su, who notes that 40 percent of the region's exports go to the U.S.

It's an honest admission that undercuts all the talk about an emerging middle-class Chinese consumer poised to take the place of Wal-Mart moms. Chinese incomes are about one tenth of those in America, and total consumer spending was about $1.7 trillion in 2007, compared with $12 trillion in the U.S. Local officials in the Pearl River Delta say they are now traveling inland to Hunan or Sichuan province to sell to their own countrymen the consumer electronics, jewelry, and shoes they once sent abroad. Yet local sales are a drop in the bucket compared with exports. There's a growing sense that the U.S. market will take years to rebound—while the Chinese market will take a long time to reach critical mass. "Even before the financial crisis, we knew we needed to move beyond the U.S. market," says Allan S.K. Lam, vice general manager of Hua Jian Group, a shoe manufacturer that makes much of what you see in stores like Nine West, Kenneth Cole, and Coach. "But it's going to take at least five years, perhaps even eight years, to develop the Chinese domestic market in an important way."

What's more, Chinese consumers have been playing a less important role in the economy in recent years. Private consumption has been steadily declining for some time, going from more than 60 percent of GDP in 1968 to 36 percent of GDP in 2008, a trend that defies the typical image of China's booming middle class. The biggest reason for this is increasing worry over the country's lack of a social safety net (pensions are rare; medical care means money down at the door). But freedom may play a role: a recent Carnegie Endowment study looking at political freedom and consumption found that countries that became less free over the last 20 years, like China, Iran, and Venezuela, had a significant drop in consumption.

The retreat of the Chinese shopper worries people like Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, who says consumption needs to reach 50 percent of GDP for China to really move beyond the export model. "There's no paradigm shift," says Roach, adding that state investment could rise from 40 percent of GDP to 45 percent by the end of this year, levels "we've never seen." Even when Japan was rebuilding after World War II, its investments reached only 34 percent of GDP. And while Japan was generating double-digit growth with that cash, Chinese leaders admit they will be lucky to hit the 7 to 8 percent target this year. Locals in Guangdong say the view from the ground is less optimistic than the official projections. "I've talked to a number of factory owners in the area, and they tell me if they can't get more orders in six weeks they may go out of business," says Ding Li, director of the Center for Regional and Corporate Competitiveness Research at the Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences.

Of course, the government can always intervene. Just look what it's done in Shenzhen, a Pearl River Delta city that, if the market had run its course, might be in just as bad shape as neighboring Dongguan, where by some estimates one out of every 10 factories is now shuttered. Shenzhen, a mere 97 kilometers away, is a vision of how government support can remake a city. Thirty years ago it was a paddy field. Then Deng Xiaoping decided to turn it into a manufacturing base, which today has an economy nearly half the size of its older and more glamorous neighbor Hong Kong. Most recently the government decided to place China's version of the NASDAQ there, spurring more new development. Many of the bourgeois trappings found in Shenzhen today—hyper-air-conditioned shopping malls, mock-Disney weekend resorts and nonsmoking coffee bars—were built by OCT (Overseas China Town), one of the earliest central-government-owned real-estate operations. Since 1985 the company has developed $8.7 billion worth of real estate. Still, many public spaces are conspicuously empty. On one recent evening, a vast California-style shopping mall filled with Chinese versions of upscale Western brands (Aqua-scu-tum, Hugo Boss) attracted only a smattering of visitors.

Still, Beijing builds on. A new state-owned luxury condo development called Portofino works improbably to bring la dolce vita to south China, with cobbled streets, broad piazzas, and a terra-cotta clock tower that chimes on the hour. A government representative claims 80 percent occupancy, and says that the $30,000-to-$50,000 flats in the development are selling to upwardly mobile, well-educated Chinese, many of them returning expats who see better job opportunities here than in the West. Yet the fake piazzas are deserted, and the majority of the comments on the message board of the local French-pastry shop are in English. While officials won't comment, it seems likely that a number of the properties are owned by or leased to Westerners.

China's heavily centralized state has spent its way to recovery before—during the Asian financial crisis of 1997–98, and also after the bursting of the dotcom bubble in 2001. But in both hose cases, government money was a stopgap, meant to buy time while the global economy (and exports) recovered. This time is different. The U.S. and, to a lesser extent, Europe are on the road to recovery. Yet exports are not coming back, which means that jobs for the 20 million Chinese migrant workers already laid off may not come back either. In fact, UBS bank estimates that the ranks of the unemployed may grow by another 15 million this year, as the export dip plays itself out. This doesn't necessarily translate into seething social discontent, as is often written. The migrants will be going back to their villages with a lot more than they left with. But in the mid- to long term, it raises pressure on China to find a new model. "I just don't see it happening," says Roach. "That's why I'm worried about another dip in growth next year."

Optimists point to Beijing's power of the purse. "The Chinese Communist Party is now the world's most liquid financial institution; there are no fiscal constraints," says Andy Rothman, a respected China bull at CLSA in Shanghai, who predicts 7 to 9 percent growth next year. Most economists agree that autocracy has its advantages in the midst of a credit crunch, since there are no political or legal obstacles to spending. As an executive at one of China's largest state-owned banks puts it, "The government told us to lend—so we did!" Yet already there are concerns about where all the new capital is going. Moody's and other ratings agencies are worried about a future rise in bad loans in China, given the explosion in bank lending. And since much of the new lending has gone to business, rather than consumers, it may be recycled among enterprises without trickling down more broadly to the consumer level, where it's most needed. While consumer-spending growth figures look high, even bulls like Rothman say the numbers are inflated to more than double the true level because government purchases at retail shops are included in the figures.

China has begun to create a social safety net, which would give people more confidence to spend instead of save, if it were not so full of holes. A few months back Beijing passed a $127 billion national health-insurance plan, to be delivered over three years. That's less than 50 bucks a head in China—"just puny," says Roach. Meanwhile, China's social-security fund has only $82 billion under management, less than $100 per worker. Economists believe the numbers should be doubled immediately, and China could afford to do it. Yet Beijing has been talking about tightening social safety nets since 2006, with little action. Even Chinese are skeptical about Premier Wen Jiabao's boast to deliver universal health care by 2011.

Of course, increasing affluence would also help encourage consumer spending—the per capita GDP in China is still only $2,000. But that would necessitate moving up from cheap, polluting industries to global Chinese brands. Right now most Chinese exports are merely assembled in China, rather than designed and branded there, which means most of the profit, and the big salaries, goes to foreign partners. Throughout Guangdong, where many exporters are based, officials and factory bosses claim to be working toward designing and producing more sophisticated finished goods, but the statistics tell a different story. Some 60 percent of production in the region is still low-end component assembly. And until China becomes an advanced export power it will remain a backward consumer society, where any green shoots are pushed up by the state.

© 2009