The Coming Taiwan War: The Probability of the Invasion of Taiwan by China After the Ukraine War

Loving peace is human nature, but conflict and war are still occurring on earth constantly. On February 24, 2022, the war in Ukraine broke out and shocked the whole world. Neither experts nor the general public totally predicted the tragedy of this conflict.  Most people underestimated the cruelty and brutality of Putin and misunderstood the international conflict and tension between Russia, Ukraine, and NATO. The catastrophe of the Ukraine war is still developing, but a new war will probably occur again. The Western states did not prevent the Ukraine war, so can they prevent the next war, which will be more massive and bloodier than the Ukraine war?  

As we all know, the rising of communist China is big trouble for the world, and China’s ambition to replace the U.S. may quite possibly lead to conflict and war between China and America. Unfortunately, Taiwan has become the focal point of this conflict. Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, global politics has changed massively, and Taiwan has become the next target for authoritarianism. According to all kinds of phenomena and research results, there is a remarkable probability of invasion of Taiwan by China after the Ukraine war because of the nature of Russia - China alliance, the ambition and ability of China, and the fact that the West did not avoid the occurrence of the Ukraine war.     

To begin with, Russia and China united in an alliance that enhanced the motivation and ability of China to invade Taiwan during the Ukraine war. On February 4th, just a few days before the Ukraine war, which was also the first day of the Winter Olympics in Beijing, Chinese President Xi and Russian President Putin issued a joint statement to declare the close partnership and strong alliance between China and Russia. The joint statement said,  

They reaffirm that the new inter-State relations between Russia and China are superior to political and military alliances of the Cold War era. Friendship between the two States has no limits, there are no forbidden areas of cooperation... Chinese side is sympathetic to and supports the proposals put forward by the Russian Federation to create long-term legally binding security guarantees in Europe...Russian side reaffirms its support for One- China principle, confirms that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China, and opposes any forms of independence of Taiwan (Joint Statement).  

Obviously, in order to fight against the Western states, change the international order, and realize their ambitions, Russia and China have united in a mutually helpful alliance. China supports the invasion of Ukraine by Russia and Russia stresses the legitimacy of the unification of Taiwan by China. Like the coordinating and cooperating of the Axis powers during World War II, China and Russia have not only supported each other during the Ukraine war, but have also dispersed and disintegrated the power of the U.S. and the West from east to west. As an article named “A ‘New Era’ - the Burgeoning Sino-Russian Bloc” published by Military Technology States, “it seems the two sides have found enough area of mutual interest to work together and to try to undermine the US-led world order by presenting two fronts” (Dominguez 42). 

Although the Russian military has failed on the battlefield recently, China still helps Russia economically, diplomatically, and through propaganda. A review regarding the first in-person meeting between China’s Xi and Russia’s Putin since the Ukraine war began asserts, “Whether Russia wins or loses, China will not change its willingness to further develop ties with Russia, because that is determined by the overall geopolitical dynamics, especially the deterioration of Sino-U.S. relations...If Russia wins, China will gain a powerful ally. Even if Russia loses, it will likely become a vassal of China” (Zhai and Gershkovich). China justified the invasion of Ukraine by Russia to set up a basis and legitimacy for the invasion of Taiwan. Meanwhile, the China-Russia alliance can enhance its power to confront the U.S. when China attacks Taiwan in the future.  In addition, to disperse and eliminate the power of the West and coordinate with Russia, China also will invade Taiwan on the east frontline. In short, after the breakout of the Ukraine war, China has not only strengthened its alliance with Russia, but also enhanced the probability of the invasion of Taiwan.  

In addition, China has massive ambition and enough ability to reunify Taiwan by force. After the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia successfully replaced communism with nationalism. Putin has used nationalism to expand Russian territory and invade Ukraine. Similarly, China president Xi has changed communism to nationalism called “China Dream” and “the Great Revival of the Chinese Nation.” “China Dream” is China’s global ambition, and it aims to make China great again. It consists of three parts. First is replacing the U.S hegemony to become the No.1 global hegemony. Second is the reunification of the country including conquering Taiwan. The third one is taking revenge for the century of humiliation as well as confronting the West. 

According to professor, Stephen J. Hartnett’s review in New Lines Magazine: 

China Dream arguments hinge on key tropes: that the U.S. is in irreversible decline and China is the new global leader, that the usual dealings of international diplomacy are a conspiracy to contain China’s rise and that reversing the country’s history of humiliation by foreign powers requires a robust and aggressive China to ‘stand up’ and reclaim its lost role as the Middle Kingdom. Like squashing democracy in Hong Kong, crushing dissent in Tibet or quelling an alleged terrorist uprising in Xinjiang, pulling Taiwan back into the fold is a key element in Xi’s China Dream promises. Making China great again is a recipe for swaggering unilateralism. 

As the theory of Thucydides Trap (Allison) asserts, rising hegemony must challenge the declining hegemony and that must lead to war. As a rising power, China wants to expand to the Pacific Ocean and challenge the U.S, but the first island chain, including Taiwan, is a significant obstacle.  Therefore, the first step of realizing hegemony is breaking through on the first island chain and totally conquering Taiwan. Then Taiwan’s East Coast shall act as China military’s SSBN base which is a deep-water and dark blue Navy base to expand in the Pacific Ocean and the globe.   In fact, China even thinks the purpose of replacing the U.S through the war is higher than reunification with Taiwan. As a result, although President Biden has said four times that the U.S. military will defend Taiwan if Taiwan is attacked, China still firmly insists on invading Taiwan because China thinks the war will be unavoidable if China is to replace the U.S. hegemony. 

Since President Xi took office, he has made clear statements about the unification of Taiwan multiple times. He said: 

We are willing to create broad space for peaceful reunification, but will leave no room for any form of separatist activities... We make no promise to renounce the use of force and reserve the option of taking all necessary means...Resolving the Taiwan question and realizing China’s complete reunification is a historic mission and an unshakable commitment of the Communist Party of China...Nobody should underestimate the staunch determination, the firm will, and powerful ability of the Chinese people to defend national sovereignty (What). 

 Recently, China’s foreign minister said at the U.N. General Assembly, “Only when China is fully reunified can there be true peace across the Taiwan Strait.” He also said China would “take the most forceful steps to oppose external interference” (China on). From the statements of Xi and his high official, it’s credible that China has a strong desire to take back Taiwan and will use force to do so if necessary.  

Additionally, as the second world economic system, China constantly strengthens its military power. China conducted the reformation of its military structure along the lines of the U.S. forces, developed nuclear weapons and long-range missiles, upgraded the level of high technology in the military, and forged three aircraft- carriers. Vice Adm. Karl Thomas, commander of the U.S. Seventh Fleet, thinks that China’s armed forces are capable of blockading Taiwan, and he points to the size of the Chinese navy, which is the largest navy in the world and growing at a rapid pace.  “They have a very large navy, and if they want to bully and put ships around Taiwan, they very much can do that” (Mandhane). In addition, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said that China wants the capability to take Taiwan by 2027(Milley), and CIA official David Cohen said that Chinese President Xi has ordered the country’s military to develop the ability to take control of Taiwan by 2027 (Saballa). Meanwhile, China has conducted many drills to provoke Taiwan and demonstrate its ability to invade Taiwan. This year, they conducted two significant drills: one sent 150 fight planes to invade the sky of Taiwan during China’s national day. Additionally, the Chinese military used six zones that effectively encircled Taiwan to conducted drills and sent missiles across the whole island from west to east during a visit by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to the island. All in all, China not only has a big ambition but also has close to full ability to take Taiwan by force.  

Furthermore, because the West has no approach for avoiding the war in Taiwan just like the West did not avoid the Ukraine war, the possibility of an invasion of Taiwan by China is very high. As we all know, the response of the U.S. and NATO after the outbreak of the Ukraine war is generally commendable, such as severe economic sanctions against Russia, diplomatic isolation, strong weapons assistance to Ukraine, etc. However, the efforts of the U.S. and NATO to try to prevent the outbreak of war have indeed failed. On February 24, 2022, the U.S. and NATO repeatedly shouted and warned to Putin that there would be severe, unprecedented economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation if Russia invaded Ukraine. Nevertheless, none of these threats, warnings, and exhortations worked. As a Ph.D. researcher analyzed, “ultimately, Europe could not prevent a Russian military invasion of Ukraine because of the EU’s security idiosyncrasies, nuclear policy choices, divergent political interests, energy dependency and ineffective sanctions policy on Russia” (Adérito). 

On April 5, 2022, U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley testified before the House Armed Services Committee: "Frankly, unless there is a commitment to send U.S. troops to the Ukrainian mainland, I'm not sure that Putin can be stopped.” This is the first time the U.S. has admitted that all other means of deterrence other than military means are ineffective (WATCH: Army). 

The experience of Ukraine will also apply to Taiwan. For China, economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation could not deter the aggression of president Xi. Since Trump conducted the trade war, China has been preparing for decoupling from the U.S. and Western economy. In terms of diplomacy, China and Russia have united many authoritarian states to become another international group. Xi does not care about being isolated from the West. Therefore, in response to China’s aggression against Taiwan, using economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation as deterrent means would be a failure, just as the West ever prevented Putin's invasion of Ukraine.    

Also, because China has nuclear weapons, China has determined that the U.S. will not fight with China's military directly. In the article, “War Is Here--What Taiwan can learn from Russia's invasion of Ukraine” published in Economist; author writes,  

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is causing a profound rethinking. ... Yet the war also brings two sobering thoughts. One is that neither the threat of sanctions nor the West's arming of Ukraine deterred Russia. The other is that Russia's nuclear threats have deterred America from intervening directly. China, too, has nuclear weapons (War Is).  

These profound thoughts are valuable and remind the world of the high probability of the invasion of Taiwan by China.   

To synthesize, all analyses, reviews, and comments foreshadow the prediction of the invasion of Taiwan by China after the Ukraine war.  China not only has boosted its global ambitions to replace the U.S. and conquer Taiwan but is also preparing positively to get the comprehensive capability to take Taiwan. In addition, because China and Russia united in an alliance during the Ukraine war, China will firmly confront the U.S and ignore the reaction of the U.S and the West. Taiwan and the West must pay attention to this serious challenge and should rid themselves of fantasies and weaknesses to face the foreseen war. Moreover, the U.S should learn the lesson from Ukraine, prevent repeating the tragedy of Ukraine, and use any approach necessary including force against the strategy and aggression of China. 

Works Cited  

Allison, Graham. "The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War?" The Atlantic, 21 June 2021, www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/09/united-states-china-war-thucydides-trap/406756. 

Adérito, Vicente. "Why Europe Slept? The Failure to Prevent the War in Ukraine." Building Better Security for Wider Europe European Leadership Network, 4 May 2022, www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/why-europe-slept-the-failure-to-prevent-the-war-in-ukraine. 

"China on Taiwan: ‘External Interference’ Won’t Be Tolerated." POLITICO, 24 Sept. 2022, www.politico.com/news/2022/09/24/china-taiwan-united-nations-00058714. 

Dominguez, Gabriel. “A ‘New Era’ - the Burgeoning Sino-Russian Bloc.” Military Technology, vol. 46, no. 2, Feb. 2022, p. 42. EBSCOhost, https://search-ebscohost-com.eznvcc.vccs.edu/login.aspx?direct=true&db=a9h&AN=157507001&site=ehost-live&scope=site  

Hartnett, Stephen. "Chinese Dream of Reunification With Taiwan May Be a Nightmare." New Lines Magazine, 24 Aug. 2022, newlinesmag.com/argument/chinese-dream-of-war-with-taiwan-may-be-a-nightmare 

"Joint Statement of the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China on the International Relations Entering a New Era and the Global Sustainable Development." President Of Russia, 4 Feb. 2022, en.kremlin.ru/supplement/5770.   

Mandhana, Niharika. "China Is Capable of Blockading Taiwan, U.S. Navy Commander Says." WSJ, 19 Sept. 2022, www.wsj.com/articles/china-is-capable-of-blockading-taiwan-u-s-navy-commander-says-11663585457  

"Milley: China Wants Capability to Take Taiwan by 2027, Sees No Near-term Intent to Invade." USNI News, 23 June 2021, news.usni.org/2021/06/23/milley-china-wants-capability-to-take-taiwan-by-2027-sees-no-near-term-intent-to-invade. 

Saballa, Joe. "China to Develop Ability to Seize Taiwan by 2027: US Intel." The Defense Post, 21 Sept. 2022, www.thedefensepost.com/2022/09/21/china-seize-taiwan-us-intel. 

"WATCH: Army Gen. Mark Milley Urges More U.S. Troops Be Stationed in Eastern Europe." PBS NewsHour, 6 Apr. 2022, www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/army-gen-mark-milley-urges-more-u-s-troops-be-stationed-in-eastern-europe. 

“‘War Is Here.’” Economist, vol. 443, no. 9293, Apr. 2022, pp. 17–19. EBSCOhost, https://search-ebscohost-com.eznvcc.vccs.edu/login.aspx?direct=true&db=a9h&AN=156559377&site=ehost-live&scope=site. 

"What Xi Jinping’s Major Speech Means For Taiwan." Council on Foreign Relations, 6 July 2021, www.cfr.org/blog/what-xi-jinpings-major-speech-means-taiwan. 

Zhai, Keith and Evan Gershkovich. "China’s Xi and Russia’s Putin Seek to Counter West in First In-Person Meeting Since Ukraine War Began." WSJ, 13 Sept. 2022, www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-xi-and-russias-putin-seek-to-counter-west-in-first-in-person-meeting-since-ukraine-war-began-11663069369.