Where is China heading?

Right now, everybody in the free world are panicking about China. They think China will go crazy, more than what Putin's Russia did. I think the reality is more complicated than that, and it worth a careful examination.

Question 1: What was X trying to do in the last a few years, especially with the zero covid policy?

I think X is trying to make his name as a capable leader. To do that, he came up with various unconventional economic and social policies. He initiated 1B1R project, Xiong'an new development region, reformed the army into 5 "war zones", and he also had a lot of policies targeting specific industries including the education sector, to name a few. His objective is actually to improve China's power in the international community and prove that there is a different system that can work better than the west. That is also the case for zero covid policy, at least at the beginning.

However, none of the measures above gain big success over the last 10 years (probably with the exception of army reform), and China is now in a worse position strategically. That means something different has to be done. Basically there are 2 ways of consolidating power: one is to make big achievements like Mao did before 1949, and the other is to purge your enemies and only use loyalists. As the first one fails, X did exactly the second.

X did that when he first came to power and launched the anti-corruption campaign, and it lasts throughout his first term. Then he took a break on that, and focus more on other things. To secure a 3rd term without significant achievements however is hard. He has to purge one more time. Zero covid policy gives a way to promote the officials that are loyal, and purge the ones that are not. Even though it has generated discontent in the society, the officials find a good way to advance. The best example is Li Qiang, who was the chief of Shanghai and locked down the whole city for months. His policy wasn't welcomed by the locals but he nonetheless pushed it through. It wasn't all that successful either, as Shanghai still has almost 1 million cases of covid, not to mention innumerable cases of abnormal death caused by the policy. These doesn't matter. What matters is that he is loyal and now he get the big prize of becoming the Premier in the next term.

That lead's to our next...

Question 2: what will X do next?

Obviously X has secured power, all of it. So he doesn't need to purge again, at least not in mass scale. However, there is discontent in the society due to zero covid and other policies. So it is still possible that X will suppress the society more, just as feared by people in the free world.

However, I think that possibility is a little less than its alternative, to buy over people's support by more favorable policies, for example by relaxing the zero covid policy. First of all, he doesn't need the zero covid policy to purge officials any more, and he knows that it is not that a popular policy in large. Now without worrying about powerful enemies who could replace him, he has more flexibilities. In his recent remark, he talked a lot about getting people's support, which makes sense. If we go back to his earlier policies, he is always trying to prove that he is capable and his policies are better than the west. That means he would rather become a popular leader who enjoys the support from the people than to turn into a fierce dictator who is afraid by all. He could still choose the latter but only if he doesn't have better options.

Question 3: will there be a war against Taiwan?

It is possible. A war against Taiwan is always a way to buy over people's support. It is a very risky one though, and Putin's war in Ukraine has again proved that. Previously I thought it is highly unlikely to happen because a war against Taiwan is beneficial only to X himself (and maybe a couple of generals who think there will be a swift victory, which is unlikely from Ukraine's experience). The interest of most officials will be damaged because of counter measures that would be carried out by the west. Now things have changed. No one can counter X in the government, so the war is possible again. We all know that there is still tremendous risk, and so is X. He talks about peace in the world from time to time, so it seems he is not committed to a war at this moment. However, X has the tendency to do something that is not carefully thought through, or to put it in a better way: X is more focused on a policy's political impact than its actual consequence, and politically a war against Taiwan has its merit: to get the support of the people. The prize is also high. If it is victorious, this would become a historical achievement that is not even done by Mao.

Question 4: will there be a cultural revolution (CR) 2.0?

Likely not. The famous historian Qin Hui from Tsinghua University has done an excellent job analyzing the cause of CR. At the beginning of the 1960s, China has big setback from the earlier leap forward policies, and people were dying in millions. The discontent has accumulated so much that Mao had to apologize in the "7000 people meeting". The problem was: the discontent was from both the officials and the society. Previously when one of them became a problem, Mao was able to purge them with the help of the other. This time is different. That is why Mao launched CR and let the officials and average people fight each other.

The situation today is different. We do see discontent in the society, but not as nearly high as in the 1960s. People are dying from lack of health care access and depression but obviously not in millions. At the same time, the officials are mostly happy, because the ones who are not are already out. Right now, there is absolutely no need to launch CR 2.0.

In conclusion, right now China has become more unpredictable, because there is no constraints in X's power, and it is more likely to have a war against Taiwan. However, it is also likely that X is going to introduce policies favorable to the society, at least in his own judgement.