中國會不會更進一步擠壓比特幣或創造自己的比特幣？

去年10月，應編輯邀請，我在 “中參館” 發表一片小文，評論中國央行對比特幣交易所的關閉政策和未來的選項。大致重申一下當時的觀點：

1. 政府當然不喜歡去中心化的技術，加上中國執政黨的重要會議，所以關閉交易所在所難免。

On the one hand, the crackdown was spurred by concerns that, if nothing were done, there would be a stronger reaction at the imminent 19th Party Congress. On the other hand, Chinese banking regulators long have had valid concerns about decentralized technologies which, sooner or later, could threaten their control and power. They also know a crackdown at this stage could generate the least backlash, before it’s too late. It remains to be seen if Beijing someday will regret the crackdown for having undermined the potential to lead the world in this sector.

2. 中國發行自己的”比特幣“，比如”人民比特幣“，可能很難成功

How about building China’s own sovereign cryptocurrency from the top down? While intriguing, this idea is not totally feasible, because any cryptocurrency runs on top of blockchain technology, which, by nature, can’t work in a centralized way. Blockchain needs to be open source and relies on social consensus to work. If there’s no consensus, then nobody even downloads the software. Open source is another key building block of any cryptocurrency. Imagine a China with a homegrown blockchain that is open source like Bitcoin—global miners couldn’t be prevented from joining and harvesting the currency. If it’s not open sourced, then nobody from other countries would trust it and mine it.

3. 中國也沒有必要發行自己的比特幣。因爲當下基於移動支付的數字貨幣體系是更容易管控的方式，還滿足了大衆的需求，發行自己的比特幣毫無利益可言

What about a Bitcoin for inside China’s Great Firewall? Why bother using blockchain at all? Just take over WeChat and Alipay to issue as much money as Bitcoin ever did.