AvengerMoJo

現居台灣,曾經居住北京,Dallas,香港出生,開源工程師,軟件顧問,重複創業者,愛做飯,博雅Mentor

Covid-19 is now spreading to South Korea, Italy, Japan, Iran and Singapore

SARS https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome

17 years ago, Hong Kong experience a first-hand attack from a virus, 299 medical officers were killed fighting SARs. It was horrible and scary, however, backs then the social spirit was positive. Most people were focusing on fighting the disease. Covid-19 first appear on the news on Jan 2020. Immediately I prepare mask and sanitizer for myself and family. In the next couple of days, the market is already out of stock and the price rise 500%. People in Hong Kong getting into panic mode very quickly. Are they overreacting? Maybe. But here are something we still not sure about this covid-19. 

First of all, the covid-19 incubation period is very long. 14 days was the answer 3 weeks ago. However, today different reports have shown it may raise to 27 days incubation period. These medical reports still not having peer review and WHO has not sent out new guidelines to extend the quarantine period. 

Worst yet covid-19 can be spread with the asymptomatic patient which also mean you and I may already be infected and does not have any symptom at all. So we don't know who has it or not unless fully examined. However, the early test kit WHO send out also provide false-negative result. WHO already showed that the current strategy for detecting viral RNA in oral swabs to diagnose covid-19 is not consistent. Hopefully, we have a faster and easier blood test to better understand the actual situation soon.  

John Hopkins coronavirus map https://bit.ly/2SUgWdY

The fatality rate is about 2.x% of the statistic in China. But we have medical report showed 15% and 11% if the hospital ICU units are overwhelmed in the city of Wuhan. Iran also has 8 death with just 43 case as of today, which is much higher then other locations. In all, we don't exactly know the number but we know it is less deathly as SARs but much worst then flu influenza. In most of the reports, I have seen so far, about 20% of patients require ICU. Using Hong Kong as an example, if your city ICU has 1500 beds. 7500 patients will for sure overwhelm the ICU and therefore fatality will then also increased. Plus don't forget those ICU are not 100% available today. If only 10% of those beds are actually available for new covid-19 patients then your city threshold is much lower. Just like South Korea 800+ patients show up over a weekend mean if the local hospital doesn't prepare to take that many ICU patients then more will be infected. Italy also show 28 out of 158 that require ICU which could mean the domestic infection already out of control. 

As of today, we have NO antiviral medication to cure covid-19. So the only thing the hospital for you is pain-relieving, fever, and coughing, etc. Unless the patients are really sick in China they are treading them with Chloroquine Phosphate, Favipiravir and Remdesivir. China has been testing those over hundreds of patients and claim to be useful. But no medical review of those meds just yet. I'm not a doctor but when a virus has no cure. We need to buy time as much as possible before we can produce the antiviral medication. Therefore isolation, quarantine and prevent getting infected are extremely important.

The medium of covid-19 transmission is very wide. Direct contact, Fecal-oral, droplet and possible aerosol just like SARS happened in Hong Kong's Amoy Gardens in 2003. What we do know is the ACE-2 receptor in our internal organ which mean lung, kidney, liver, and heart are all possible under attack by the covid-19. Just the lung is easiest and fastest for a patient to be killed. Which also mean smoker, long term lung illness and people living in air polluted area are also at high risk because of the high ACE-2 receptor in their lung. Some said children is less likely to be infected is not the right estimation, because ACE-2 concentration is not directly related to age. Hong Kong medical team already fully exam existing patents for possibility of airborne, so far it show no evident covid-19 can airborne by itself. So drink boiled water, no raw food for now, individual meal don't share, hand washing 20 sec or above, disinfecting toilet are very important now. Especially if you are in isolation, your toilet became a very dangerous location. 

One final risk of covid-19 remission rate and infection period before immunity are two topics that I currently having seen yet. If you know any doctor is vlog this topic please let me know. The following are what I have been following so far. 

Medcram
Dr. John Campbell

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