Demonstration in Iran in September: Political changes in Iran's century-old history and the ups and downs of women's fate（伊朗百年历史政治变迁与女性命运的跌宕 英文版）

This Chinese version article has been published in New Threads, Tianxia Magazine, Independent Chinese PEN:

伊朗百年历史政治变迁与女性权利的跌宕

【投書】伊朗頭巾示威：伊朗百年歷史政治變遷與女性命運的跌宕

王庆民：9月示威：伊朗百年历史政治变迁与女性命运的跌宕

(This article is translated by Google, not human translation, so there may be some inaccuracies and fallacies in the sentences, but the overall meaning should be able to express clearly)

On September 16, the death of a woman who was arrested for violating the dress code stipulated by Iran's religious laws triggered demonstrations across Iran, including the capital Tehran. The demonstrators chanted "against the dictator"  , "Protest against the oppression of women from the Kurdish area to Tehran", "Death to Khamenei (Supreme Leader of Iran)" and other slogans, and violence gradually emerged during the protests and demonstrations, and the demonstrators clashed fiercely with the military and police.  In the past half a month, although the Iranian government has dispatched more military and police to suppress it, and has taken measures such as cutting off Internet communications in some areas, the protests have not subsided, and the conflicts continue, and the number of deaths from protests continues to rise.

     This wave of demonstrations is not an isolated case by chance, but another climax of the civil protest movement in Iran in recent years.  Iranian influence.  To understand the merits and influence of this demonstration, we must trace back to Iran's complicated and tortuous historical changes.

     Unlike most countries in the Middle East where the main ethnic groups are Arabs, from ancient times to the present, the main body of Iranian nationals is Persians (61% of Iran’s total population), while Azerbaijanis (16%) and Kurds (10%)  It is an important minority (Arabs only account for 2%), which together constitute the Iranians today.  The Persians and other closely related ethnic groups established the Persian Empire ("Persia" is the Latin transliteration of "Iran") that flourished in the Middle East more than 2,000 years ago.  After the 7th century, after the invasion of Arabs and other Muslim groups, Iran gradually became Islamized. Although the Islamicized Iranians became Muslims, the vast majority (89%) belonged to the Shia sect that opposed the mainstream Sunni sect  .  It is precisely because the Iranians and the mainstream groups in the Middle East have different historical origins, national identities, and religious identities that they have formed a unique Persian civilization.  Compared with Arab Muslims whose religious beliefs are greater than their national identity and who follow religious traditions more, Iranians have more nationalistic sentiments than religious beliefs. The secular Persian culture has more influence on the country and people than religion. Iranians from kings to civilians  They are also willing to accept modern systems, humanities, and technology.

     Against this background, Iran has experienced a very secular modern history.  From 1925 to 1941, during the reign of Reza Pahlavi (Reza Khan), the "Shah (monarch)" of the Kingdom of Iran, he promoted a series of westernization reforms in Iran, developed modern education and transportation, and got rid of old customs.  Prohibiting women from wearing veils and headscarves, weakening the influence of religion on the country and the people; from 1951 to 1953, Iran's left-wing politician Mosaddegh served as prime minister and implemented a series of socialist reforms, developing education and medical care for common people  Public services and women's liberation were naturally on the agenda and progressed until they were overthrown by a coup d'état planned by British and American forces and participated by domestic opposition groups;  ) During his reign, he was also committed to the modernization and secularization of the country, especially after 1963, the implementation of the "White Revolution", land reform, nationalization of resources, improvement of women's status and giving them political rights and the right to education, popularization of education,  Cultivate grassroots democracy, promote basic security for all, and strengthen secular government power.  During these periods, Iran was highly secular and religious influence was limited.

     But religious forces have been trying to seize political power in Iran and establish an Islamic regime in Iran that combines theocracy.  Khomeini, an Islamic Shiite thinker and politician, is a representative figure of Iran's religious forces.  In the 1960s and 1970s, although the "White Revolution" of Pahlavi made Iran rich and powerful, it also brought about corruption, polarization between the rich and the poor, waste of resources, the prevalence of pleasure and extravagance in society, and the moral depravity of some people.  And other issues, Pahlavi's own life can be described as extravagant.  Khomeini, who was in exile at that time, took advantage of these problems to advocate the overthrow of Pahlavi’s rule, revive Islamism, cleanse people’s hearts and transform society through Islamic ideas about equality, unity, integrity, and abstinence, and build Iran into a  A country dominated by Islamic law.  Before the victory of the revolution, Khomeini also showed himself as a tolerant and kind religious scholar, and claimed that after the establishment of the Islamic Republic, he would respect human rights and tolerate groups and individuals of different beliefs, thus winning the anti-Pahlavi factions in Iran  , the favor and support of the Western world and the Islamic world.

     In 1979, Iran's Islamists, socialists/communists, and liberals collaborated in a revolution that overthrew the Pahlavi dynasty.  However, the Islamists did not share the fruits of the revolution with the other two factions. Instead, after a short transitional period, after several years of violent purges and public opinion control, all non-Islamists were suppressed, and a political system was established where politics and religion were in harmony and politics was greater than religion.  In the Islamic Republic, religious forces monopolize political power, and Khomeini serves as the "Supreme Leader of Iran" who is in charge of religious, political, and military power at the same time.  Khomeini did not fulfill his pre-revolutionary commitment to respecting human rights and tolerating different beliefs. Instead, he began to implement strict Islamic law. All state policies and national behavior must follow Islamic teachings and laws.

     The main victims of the religiousization of the Iranian state are women.  Before the Islamic Revolution in Iran, Iranian women had relatively the best protection of rights among Islamic countries. They enjoyed political rights such as the right to vote and be elected, the right to education, and a large degree of freedom in marriage and dress.  Moreover, during the Pahlavi era, Iranian women often appealed for and advocated for women's rights through demonstrations and marches. Whether they were religious conservative women or secular radical women, they could openly express their dissatisfaction with the government and put forward their demands to a certain extent.  The downfall of the Pahlavi regime and the success of the revolution itself had the participation and credit of Iranian women.

     But after the victory of the Islamic Revolution, the religious regime quickly restricted women's rights and suppressed the feminist movement.  Based on their fundamental understanding of Islamic teachings, they believe that women are inferior to men, subordinate to men, cannot enjoy the same rights as men, and need to abide by some norms of words and deeds unique to women.  One of the very important requirements is that women need to wear clothing that meets the requirements of Islamic law, such as wearing a black burqa and wearing a specific headscarf.  Not only the restrictions on clothing, women's political rights, education rights, employment rights, and family civil rights have also been compressed.  Women are required to play a good role as "housewives" and reduce their participation in public affairs.  The comic "I grew up in Iran" by Iranian-French cartoonist Marga Shatabi and the animated film "Life of Jasmine" based on the comic tells the story of the oppression and imprisonment of Iranian women in the Khomeini era and their  physical and mental pain.

     Khomeini died in 1989.  Khomeini's disciple, then President Khamenei, was transferred to the "Supreme Leader of Iran", and the presidency was taken over by Rafsanjani (according to Iran's political system, the "Supreme Leader" is slightly equivalent to the president of other presidential systems  , while the Iranian president is slightly equivalent to the prime ministers of other countries).  Khamenei, who inherited Khomeini's mantle, has a position very close to Khomeini's, but his prestige is far less than Khomeini's.  President Rafsanjani, on the other hand, is a relatively enlightened politician, moderate and pragmatic.  At this time, Iran, because of domestic political and religious cleansing, economic rigidity and stagnation, and externally due to sanctions from the United States and other Western countries, the destruction caused by the Iran-Iraq War, and the isolation of Iran by Sunni countries, led to internal and external difficulties in Iran.

    Therefore, with the acquiescence of Khamenei, Rafsanjani carried out a series of reforms, such as abandoning the policies of nationalization and planned economy during the Khomeini period, and instead promoting privatization and developing a market economy, in order to improve the deteriorating situation.  Iranian economy and people's livelihood.  On issues related to religion, although Khomeini's ideas and policies have been largely inherited, the specific implementation has been largely relaxed.  Iranian women are finally seeing some light after a decade of darkness shrouded in a fundamentalist prison.  The next president, Khatami, is also an enlightened reformist, and the situation of women has been further improved.  Not only did women still have the right to education and most jobs, but they also got a looser treatment when it came to dressing.

      But when Ahmadinejad was president, Iran's political climate became conservative again.  On the prominent issue of dress, women began to be required to standardize their dress and abide by religious rules and regulations.  The next president, Rouhani, has a political stance similar to that of Khatami, and the situation of women has also improved again.

   In fact, from the Islamic Revolution in 1979 to the present, except for the ten years when Khomeini was in power, although women's rights and freedoms in Iran were limited, they were still better than most other Islamic countries.  Of course, this is not only because of several enlightened presidents, but because Iran has a system and culture different from that of other Arab countries.

    Iran practices a special "dual politics", that is, the combination of theocracy and secular politics.  On the one hand, the supreme power in Iran is in the hands of the "supreme leader" representing Iran's Islamic clericalism. Religious forces control, infiltrate, and participate in politics, military, economy, and culture; on the other hand, Iran also has a system based on  Secular mode of administration, legislation, judiciary and other broad government agencies, these secularized institutions and laws govern the country and the people.  Under such a system, although religious forces hold the fundamental power and influence all aspects of the country and the people, the people under the secularized state machine can still partly live in accordance with the statute of civil rights (not religious rights) based on secularism  , and has a large degree of freedom.  This allows Iranian women to be protected by secular systems and laws while being bound by religion, and have the freedom to choose their own lifestyles, unlike women under the Saudi Wahhabist regime and the Taliban regime in Afghanistan who have to accept a full set of "Sharia".  Law (Islamic law)".

     Moreover, unlike Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other autocratic monarchy regimes, and different from Egypt, Syria and other countries where the military controls power, Iran has a real and powerful democracy, although not complete.  Iran's president and members of Congress are all elected by universal suffrage.  Although both presidential and congressional candidates need to pass the qualification review of the "Constitutional Guardian Council" composed of clergy before they can run for election, and after being elected, they need the approval of the supreme leader before they can take office, but universal election is real, and it is often a competitive election  and competing.  The fact that Rafsanjani, Khatami, and Rouhani were able to be elected president (and defeated the candidate selected by the conservatives) also shows the authenticity and competitiveness of the election.

     Under such a premise, the Iranian people can at least partially influence state power and decision-making.  Women in Iran have the right to vote, and the Iranian government certainly needs to consider their interests and concerns.  The Iranian National Assembly has also elected some feminists and joined forces with moderate MPs to promote some policies to promote women's rights, which is almost impossible in other Islamic countries.  In addition, Iranian people, including women, have the freedom of speech, association, procession, and demonstration (even if they are greatly restricted). Iran often has various political rallies, and various non-governmental organizations and self-media are also very active.  , which is also difficult to see in other authoritarian countries.

     Iranian women not only have a certain amount of weight in politics, but are also quite successful in the field of art.  Iranian female directors and actors account for half of the Iranian film industry. For example, Nargis Abeye and Roshan Benitima are well-known female directors inside and outside Iran.  Iranian actresses like Layla Khatami in "The Farewell" also captured the world's attention.  Although these women will not directly criticize the religious regime, their achievements and the concern for women in their works are enough to effectively promote the improvement of the status and rights of Iranian women.

     In terms of culture and education, Iranian women are also quite successful.  In Iran's universities, 60% of students are women, a higher proportion than most countries in the world.  The good education women get also makes them quite successful in the fields of natural science, engineering, humanities and social sciences. The Iranian mathematician Mariam Mirzakhani, who won the world's highest mathematics award "Fields Medal", is a typical example.  Many women who have received higher education have become doctors, judges, lawyers, and entrepreneurs, and they have a high status and respect in society.

     All of the above are unthinkable in most Islamic countries.  In Saudi Arabia, where the degree of fundamentalism is extremely high, women not only have no political rights, but also have no right to receive a complete education and choose a career freely. Most Saudi women can only be housewives, husbands and children throughout their lives.  While other Islamic countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Egypt and other countries have a more relaxed system and social environment, women's rights and freedoms rarely reach the level of Iran. Women's achievements in cultural, economic, and social fields are even more difficult to match with Iranian women.  compared to.

Obviously, Iranian women have a higher status, greater rights, and more freedom than women in most other Islamic countries and authoritarian countries.  It is under such a premise that Iranian women can fight for their rights and freedom.  At the same time, the Iranian regime itself is still dominated by religious theocracy, and the country has various laws and policies based on religion.  This means that Iranian women are both oppressed and have the ability to resist, which has led to fierce conflicts between Iranian women and the regime.

     In 2021, the conservative Ibrahim Rahim was elected President of Iran.  He reversed the enlightened policies of his predecessor, Hassan Rouhani, and strengthened the enforcement of religious orders.  One of these manifestations is the stricter requirement for Iranian women to abide by religious dress codes.

     On the issue of women's rights in Iran, disputes over political rights, education rights, marriage and property rights, and employment rights are all very important.  But the most obvious one is the requirements on women's dress.  According to Islamic law, women are required to wear a burqa that covers most of the body and a hijab/veil on the head.  However, different sects and different regimes have different requirements for specific clothing forms and how much to cover.  Generally speaking, more moderate and enlightened sects or regimes will relax regulations and allow women to cover their heads, hands and feet only symbolically.  Conservatives, on the other hand, demand almost full body covering, with the veil completely covering the face.  Because the dress issue is the most routine and conspicuous, and the law enforcement is the most direct and frequent, it has become the field with the most conflicts with the regime in the Iranian women's rights movement.

     Therefore, after the Rahih regime introduced stricter dress codes and stepped up enforcement, it triggered fierce resistance from Iranian women.  Over the past few years, many Iranian women have been arrested and even sentenced for their attire.  Finally, the death of Amini in September sparked the current wave of protests on a very large scale.

    In fact, the outbreak of this wave of protests is not only due to the controversy over women's clothing and the death of Amini, but also the shrill roar of Iranian women's resistance to the oppression of the religious authority and the Iranian people's domestic and foreign difficulties.

    As mentioned earlier, Iranian women are bound by religious rights and unable to fully assert their rights and free development. They also have more rights, freedom and greater achievements than many other Islamic countries and autocratic countries.  But in the final analysis, Iranian women are still deeply oppressed by religious power, religious law, and political power, and cannot enjoy the same rights, freedom, and development opportunities as men.  The dress/hijab issue is just a trigger. What Iranian women really want to resist is the entire religious culture and order, and strive for women's rights based on secularism and equality between men and women.

    And this time, women were not the only ones who took to the streets to protest; women participated in the protest not only because of women's rights issues.  For decades after the Islamic Revolution, Iran's political rigidity, economic stagnation, conservative ideology, and relatively isolated diplomacy, as well as the sharp deterioration of the economy in recent years under the sanctions of the United States, Britain and other countries, and a more sinister external environment, are the reasons for this protest, especially the violent activities.  most frequent root cause.

     Since the Islamic revolution in 1979, Iran's economic situation has been very bad.  Compared with the booming economy during the Pahlavi period, the Iranian economy has been sluggish for more than 40 years after the revolution.  Even if reformers like Rafsanjani and Khatami promote economic liberalization, they cannot really change the situation of economic decline.  The root of its economic decline is that the post-revolutionary political system, economic policy, and distribution model are all rigid and conservative, unable to stimulate economic vitality.  Even though Iran is rich in oil and natural gas resources, most of the resource revenues belong to religious figures and military and police forces affiliated to the religious regime (such as the "Iranian Revolutionary Guard"), and the people are generally poor.

    Politically, although Iran has a certain degree of democracy, the rule of law, and freedom, they are limited after all.  The "supreme leader" representing religious theocracy is far more powerful than the president, and other departments and localities also have "god" above "politics" and "religion" above "law."  Religious forces have always played a conservative role in Iran, refusing to change and even making the country regress.  This was the case in the Khomeini era, and it has not changed fundamentally since Khamenei came to power.  The Iranian people have elected a moderate, reformist president three times, showing that their hearts are open and free.  However, the president and the secular government are unable to compete with the "supreme leader" and religious forces. Many reforms can only be abandoned halfway, and some improvement measures require a lot of compromise if Khamenei approves them.

     Even worse is the diplomatic/external environment.  Immediately after the Islamic Revolution, the "Iranian Hostage Crisis (Iranian soldiers and civilians broke into the US embassy and beat and kidnapped US diplomats, the crisis lasted for 444 days)" occurred, which led to the severance of diplomatic relations between the United States and Iran and the long-term hostility.  Khomeini also clearly put forward his anti-American proposition, regarding the United States and the entire Western world as a symbol of decadent secular capitalism and the enemy of Islamic civilization.  At the same time, Khomeini also firmly opposed the communist ideology of the other camp, the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe.  Iran and the Khomeini regime are dominated by Shiites, with Persians as the main body, which puts them in a state of hostility with the surrounding Sunni-dominated Arab countries, especially with Sunni-led countries and monarchical autocracies.  Saudi Arabia is incompatible.  From 1980 to 1988, the Iraqi Saddam regime invaded Iran, and the two countries fought for eight years. Nearly one million people were killed and disabled on both sides (more than 500,000 were killed and injured on the Iranian side), and the economy and infrastructure were greatly damaged.  In the war, except for a few countries such as Syria, all countries in the Middle East supported Iraq and were hostile to Iran, which made Iran's external environment worse.

     And Iran also has a country that is extremely hostile both in terms of religious beliefs and national interests, namely Israel.  Khomeini and his followers publicly regard anti-Zionism and the elimination of Israel as their teachings and realistic goals.  Iran, led by Khomeini and Khamenei, has threatened and harassed Israel by supporting Israel's enemies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine.  Israel also regards Iran as its number one enemy, attacking Iranian military personnel and scientists through assassinations, sabotage, etc., and uniting with Iran's Sunni enemies to surround Iran.

     Since the establishment of the Islamic regime, Iran has been in a state of high isolation in the international arena for a long time. The degree of isolation is no less than that of China under Mao Zedong in the 1960s when it was at war with the West, the Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, and the Third World.  This has greatly affected its normal foreign economic and trade, cultural, and technological exchanges, and naturally caused serious damage to its domestic economy and people's livelihood.  Although Iran has gradually eased relations with the West since the 1990s and established long-term friendly and cooperative relations with Russia and China, it is still relatively isolated on the whole.  Even with Russia and China, which are relatively friendly, they are more friends of interests than true close allies.  After 1995, with the prominence of the Iranian nuclear issue, Iran fell into a new round of international sanctions and isolation.

      Until 2013, Rouhani, a moderate, served as president, expressing goodwill to the international community, including the United States, and willing to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue peacefully.  At this time, Obama, who advocated peaceful diplomacy and was relatively friendly to US rival countries, was serving as US president. The US was also trying to reshape the geopolitical structure of the Middle East and get rid of its excessive dependence on Saudi Arabia and Israel.  Therefore, the relationship between the United States and Iran was improved quickly, and the "Iran Nuclear Agreement" was successfully signed in 2015. Iran promised to abandon the development of nuclear weapons in exchange for lifting sanctions, obtaining civil nuclear energy assistance, and resuming economic and trade exchanges with Western countries.  At this time, Iran's diplomacy finally made a major breakthrough, and Iran gradually shifted from a relatively closed country to more openness to the outside world.  As a result, the economic and people's livelihood situation in Iran has improved. The Rouhani government has received widespread support in Iran. Even the conservative Khamenei supports the Rouhani government and its measures to sign the Iran nuclear agreement and improve US-Iran relations.  Iran's domestic economic and social reforms are also in progress.

    Unfortunately, at the end of 2016, Trump was unexpectedly elected President of the United States.  The forces supporting Trump's campaign include right-wing hawks (such as John Bolton) who advocate toughness against Iran, as well as Iran's rivals Saudi Arabia and Israel.  After Trump was elected, he contracted a group of hawks to completely overthrow the Obama administration's Iran policy, disregarded international rules and contracts, abolished the "Iran Nuclear Agreement", re-imposed sanctions on Iran, and united with Iran's rivals Saudi Arabia and Israel.  Suppress Iran through various means.  Although France, Germany, China and other countries participating in the Iran nuclear negotiation all opposed the actions of the Trump administration, the treaty was abolished and sanctions were reinstated.

     This is nothing less than a bolt from the blue for Iran.  For moderates in Iran, signing the Iran nuclear deal and improving relations with the United States are not only for opening up the situation diplomatically, but also for domestic economic development and social innovation.  If the terms of the agreement are gradually implemented and relations with the United States improve, external pressure can be greatly reduced, the harsh state of isolation can be overcome, and Iran's foreign economic and trade development and the introduction of technical capital can be promoted.  After achieving these results, the moderates can also gain political advantages and overwhelm the hardliners who advocate hostility to the United States (most of them belong to religious forces).  If this is the case, social changes in Iran, including political reforms, can be carried out, and the religious overtones of the Iranian regime will also degenerate, while secular forces will relatively gain power, and women will also benefit from it.

    The Trump administration tore up the agreement and restored sanctions, making all this come to naught.  As the world's largest country, the United States' foreign policy toward Iran not only determines its own behavior, but also affects the attitudes and positions of countries around the world toward Iran.  After the United States re-imposed sanctions on Iran, Iran fell into international isolation again, its foreign economic and trade exchanges have been greatly reduced, and its geopolitical situation has deteriorated further.  To make matters worse, Soleimani, the commander-in-chief of Iran's "Revolutionary Guards", was killed by the US military in 2020, which almost led to a war (in fact, the Trump administration tried to induce war by this, and Iran chose to endure).  This series of attacks from the United States and other external enemies has gradually depressed and lost the moderates in Iran, and the hardliners, mainly religious conservative forces, have regained power. Rahi's victory in the 2021 presidential election is an example.  Such a result has also led to the suspension and even retrogression of Iran's domestic reforms, and the rights of Iranian women have been restricted again.

     Diplomatic setbacks and external sanctions have also seriously intensified Iran's domestic conflicts.  In Iran, which has been in trouble for a long time, all walks of life are counting on improving relations with the United States to open up the diplomatic situation, allowing impoverished Iran to reintegrate into the world market, promoting employment and improving people's livelihood.  But after the agreement was destroyed, Iranians had to wait in long shopping lines, face widespread shortages of food, medicine and industrial products, and a sudden increase in unemployed youth from the capital Tehran to the remote Khorasan province.  People's dissatisfaction with the government's diplomatic failures, economic failures, and failures in people's livelihood has continued to erupt, and various protests have emerged one after another.

Faced with such a situation, both the religious forces and the secular government are helpless to solve the economic and people's livelihood, so they have strengthened social control and issued more laws and regulations with a strong religious color, in an attempt to use Islamic law and tradition to stabilize people's hearts and maintain social order.  On the one hand, this has won the goodwill of the conservative part of the people and quelled some turmoil, but it has also caused greater dissatisfaction among secularists and inspired more violent resistance.  Since 2018, more than a dozen large-scale protests have broken out in Iran, including protests against rising oil prices, cancellation of food subsidies, and economic weakness.  And women are also widely involved.  Under the hostile internal and external environment, Iranian women, especially those in the middle and lower classes, are the weakest of the weak, the victims of the five oppressions of hegemony, national and ethnic conflicts, religious power, political power, class, and gender.  The deeper it suffers, the stronger the resistance.  And Iran is not like Saudi Arabia and North Korea, which is an airtight and completely authoritarian system. Its certain degree of freedom makes all kinds of oppression strongly rebound, and women also use various conditions to fight hard.

    The protests and violence triggered by Amini's death in September this year are the latest in a series of protests and violence.  It not only emphasizes the feminist appeal of defending women's rights and freedoms, but also contains the same dissatisfaction with economic recession, rising prices, unemployment and poverty as other protests, as well as deeper political dictatorship, rigid thinking, and domestic and foreign failures.  The anger and hatred of the Chinese government and religious forces.

     Although the protests and conflicts are still ongoing, according to the process and results of previous similar incidents, this protest will probably be suppressed in the near future.  But even if the regime suppresses it, it will only temporarily quell the turmoil, and will not allow the regime to stabilize for a long time.  Facing the long-term poverty, the imprisonment of religious power, the high pressure of autocracy, and the hopeless future, and recalling the glory of ancient Persia and the prosperity of the Pahlavi period, the anger of the Iranian people will not be stopped by the violence of the military and police, but will become more and more serious.  Burn more and more prosperous.  The people's struggle will not stop until the end of the religious power, the end of autocracy, and the improvement of people's livelihood.

    So, how can Iran, the Iranian people, and Iranian women be reborn?

     The biggest problem within Iran lies in the power of the church and its dominance over the secular world.  For Iran, its "dual politics" of religion and secularity not only prevents religion from monopolizing all religious and secular affairs, but also becomes a shackle to suppress secular forces.  According to the results of democratic elections and the operation of government agencies in recent years, as well as the social and cultural environment and national values, it can be seen that Iran has a very strong secular democratic foundation, and the people yearn for freedom.  However, the power of the religious authority over the secular government prevents democracy from being perfected, the secular world has to obey religion, and the people do not have full freedom.  For women, it is a lifelong nightmare when religious conservative forces take power and implement the Sharia law.  Even though the situation of Iranian women is relatively relaxed, especially in big cities such as Tehran, women's rights and freedoms are well protected, but religious laws and ideological pressure still make women live uneasy lives under the sword of Damocles.

     Religious forces not only dominate the secular world politically, but also monopolize the country's economic lifelines such as energy development and foreign trade, making a fortune from the country's resources.  While defending the country, the "Iranian Revolutionary Guards" and its subordinate "Bassky Militia" are also masters of stealing.  Iran's conservative religious forces are like a tumor parasitic on the country, which has prevented the country from normalizing. It has dragged down both economics and politics, and women have been more restrained.  In order to develop Iran's economy, people's freedom, and women's rights in particular, it is necessary to eliminate the political parasitism of religious forces and their overriding of the secular government.

      The external environment is equally important to Iran.  In fact, Iran has always been relatively cautious and restrained in its external affairs and abides by international rules.  Except for Khomeini's attempt to "export revolution", Iran has adopted a more defensive stance on foreign issues in the past three decades.  Compared with its opponent, Saudi Arabia, which spreads extreme Wahhabi teachings everywhere and flirts with dictatorships in the world, Iran has to maintain diplomacy with some countries only for survival, and is not keen on preaching.  Iran's construction of the "Shiite Crescent" in the Middle East is also a countermeasure against the aggressive actions of the Sunni alliance and Israel.  When trying to sign the Iran nuclear agreement, Iran has shown great sincerity.  More importantly, there is a strong pro-Western and pro-secular sentiment among the Iranian people.  Some people think that Iran is a strongly anti-American country based on some news information from China and the United States. This is just political propaganda.  In reality, most Iranians have no strong dislike or even good opinion of the United States, they just need to cooperate with the official anti-American propaganda.  Iranians are generally eager to integrate into the world, and they are especially envious of the Western world. This gives the international community a good "mass base" to promote Iran's transformation.

    However, the international community has not released enough goodwill, and even returned good with evil.  The worst thing is that the Trump administration tore up the Iran nuclear agreement, re-imposed sanctions on Iran, refused to issue visas to Iranian citizens, prevented exchanges and cooperation between the United States and Iran and even Iran and other countries, and joined forces with Saudi Arabia and Israel to make things difficult for the Middle East and the world.  Iran.  This directly led to the loss of moderates in Iran and the return of religious conservative forces to power.  The killing of Soleimani also intensified the conflict between the United States and Iran, allowing Iranian religious elements and nationalists to incite anti-American sentiment.  Some people think that these sanctions and crackdowns can exacerbate Iran's internal conflicts and spark revolution, but in fact, this will only lead to the rise of extremist forces in Iran, increased poverty and violence, and ultimately the Iranian people will suffer.  Especially for Iranian women, they will become pawns and victims of international games and internal conflicts.

     The international behavior that is truly beneficial to Iran and the Iranian people is by no means to intensify conflicts and increase hatred, but to release goodwill to those in power and the people on the basis of respecting Iran's national sovereignty and safeguarding its legitimate interests, open the door to openness and dialogue, and actively cooperate with Iran.  Negotiate the treaty revision and implement the agreement, promote Iran's integration into the world and realize peace in the Middle East.  On this basis, support the peaceful struggle of the Iranian people in a reasonable and restrained manner, help vulnerable groups including women to fight for their legitimate interests, and provide material help, public opinion support, organization and information support for these struggles and rights protection within their capabilities.  Even if sanctions are imposed on Iran, they should be based on human rights rather than geopolitics, and the targets of sanctions should be criminals who violate human rights rather than the entire country and ordinary people.  If the international community can do this, Iran's political revolution, social innovation, and women's rights will be a great success.

    Of course, the above assumptions are just ideals.  In reality, Iran's religious forces are deeply entrenched, closely tied to the country, the government, the army, the judiciary, education, the media and other fields, and even become a part of it. Various interests are so intertwined that it is almost impossible to completely remove them.  The international situation, especially the situation in the Middle East, is even more severe and complicated. The thousand-year grievances between the Sunnis and Shiites, the rivalry between the Persians/Iranians and the Arabs, the deadly feud between Iran and Israel based on ideology and real interests, and  The proxy wars between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and other countries in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen have made Iran deeply trapped in the geopolitical game and it is difficult to get out.  And countries outside the region also have their own concerns, and their attitudes towards Iran and the Middle East also depend on their own interests, and it is impossible to take reason and morality as the top priority.  Under such internal and external conditions, Iran's reform is far away.

     But there is no need to completely lose hope for the fate of the country, the future of the Iranian people, especially women.  As mentioned above, Iran has a unique national culture and historical tradition, has a relatively secular and open historical experience, has a profound cultural background, and has strong independent scientific research capabilities.  Compared with other developing countries, Iran's citizens, including women, have a high level of education, better national literacy, and a strong sense of rights and dignity. They have also produced many outstanding figures in various fields such as art, education, and science, and many of them care about  Current events, passionate about the civil rights and feminist movements.  Whether it is a historical legacy or a realistic basis, the above conditions give Iran great potential for change.

     Internationally, with the defeat of Trump, the fall of the far-right anti-Iran (Iran), pro-Saudi (Saudi Arabia) and pro-Israel (Israel) hawks, and the rise of the Democratic government, the United States has begun to correct the extreme right-wing  Under the control of forces, the distorted Middle East policy and Iran policy have also restarted the Iran nuclear negotiation.  Progressive forces in many countries around the world, including the United States, are also trying their best to speak out for Iranian women, rather than using Iranian women and destroying the Iranian nation out of interests and sectarian positions like some other forces.  Although these changes have not had much effect for the time being, at least they will not put the Iranian country and people into greater difficulties as they did during the Trump period.

      Therefore, the cause of democracy and women's liberation in Iran contains long-term hope amidst short-term hopelessness.  In 1979, the Iranian people, with great enthusiasm, pushed down the accomplished but corrupt Pahlavi from the throne, ended Iran's two thousand years of royal power, and established a republic.  Although the achievements of the revolution were stolen and monopolized by religious conservative forces, it also demonstrated the fearless courage and strength of the Iranian people.  Although today's clerical power is more deeply rooted than Pahlavi's autocratic monarchy, its out-of-touch with modern civilization and democracy and human rights also reflects its backwardness and decay.  It cannot last forever amid waves of protest.  If the international community does not harm Iran's sovereignty and national interests, but also helps the people, then the victory of Iranian democracy and the promotion of women's rights will surely come.

     For the religious conservative forces in Iran, including Khamenei, it is their best choice to withdraw from the stage of history decently, hand over power to the secular government, and then serve as a religious leader in an advisory position.  Compared with some other regimes that do not believe in their beliefs at all, never abide by the rules and regulations, are totalitarian at home, and spread extremist ideas and models abroad (such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and other religious kingdoms, as well as the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe before the end of the Cold War,  Today’s China and Vietnam are communist countries in name but authoritarian and totalitarian one-party dictatorships in essence), and the Iranian Shia leaders from Khomeini to Khamenei are actually more sincere in worshiping gods and prophets,  With pious belief and self-discipline, he also sincerely hopes that the Iranian people will be happy.

     Before the Islamic Revolution, they all promised that the Islamic Republic would guarantee basic human rights and respect for different faiths.  Not only did Khomeini show a gentle face as mentioned above, but his disciple Khamenei also made similar promises.  Husan al-Assadi, an Iranian communist in exile, told Radio Free Europe about his past.  During the Pahlavi era, he and Khamenei were both arrested for resisting the tyranny of the monarchy. They were still roommates in the same cell, and the two talked about everything.  Although they have different beliefs, they cherish each other.  Later, when the two parted, Khamenei's clothes were thin and shivering from the cold. Hu Shan took off his sweater and gave it to Khamenei, and the two hugged tightly.  Khamenei cried and said, "When the Islamic Republic is established, no one will shed a single tear."

     Such stories are touching, and the actions of religious forces to cleanse communism and liberals after the revolution make people understand the cruelty and ruthlessness of politics.  But should revolutionary ideals really be forgotten?  If many Iranian revolutionaries in the Khomeini era still tried to use such cruel means to establish a paradise on earth based on Islamic teachings, "everyone is a brother", helping the weak and helping the poor, clean and just, and good morals, then decades of political  Doesn't the failure of the economy, including the corruption and extravagance of many religious elements, reflect that such a "utopia" has actually failed and is unlikely to succeed in the future?  If you still sincerely believe in these things instead of being seduced by interests, shouldn't you change your course, make up for the old mistakes, and retreat?

     If Khamenei and his comrades can recognize the reality and look back at the original intention, they should gradually transition Iran into a secular democracy while retaining certain powers and interests, and then retire.  And the Shiite version of Islamic values ​​they uphold can be like the Christianity in Western countries and even the status quo of the Russian Orthodox Church, which can carry forward the beneficial elements of religion under the premise of separation of church and state, and make religion a moral reference for maintaining public order and good customs in society and a spiritual comfort for the people.  Instead of relying on violence and power to bring the people into submission.  Regarding women's issues, Islamic traditional teachings were conducive to the protection of women's rights in the old era thousands of years ago, and they are also worthy of compliance in the specific historical environment in ancient times.  But any religion or culture should not stick to the old stereotypes, but must keep pace with the times.  The previous dogmas are outdated, and Islam also needs to respect and defend women's rights and freedoms in modern society.  Especially for Shia Islam, its establishment and development and its great difference from the mainstream Sunni sect are originally a kind of sublation and innovation of Islamic traditions, rather than conformity to the old ways.  In fact, compared with many other Islamic countries and religious forces, and even many autocratic secular regimes, Iran's religious power has done relatively well.  Regardless of economics and distribution, political participation, and social freedom, Iran is better than most authoritarian countries.  If it can make use of its own prestige and ability to make the country more civilized and modern, then its merits are enough to cover its crimes, and it can be regarded as a kind of perfection.

      But in reality, no matter because of their attachment to power or their paranoid and conservative ideological stance, they will almost certainly not give up power or change the status quo, but muddle through, spread the word, and even go backwards to contain the wave of revolution.  Maintain religious dictatorship.  But going against the trend of history, out of touch with modern civilization, and ignoring the interests of the people will eventually be swept into the garbage dump of history, "only fighting for early arrival and late arrival."

      The history and reality of Iran are not only the history and reality of Iran; the fate and struggle of Iranian women are not only the fate and struggle of Iranian women.  The world is a whole, and the whole world is hot and cold.  Democracy and human rights are the common values ​​and well-being of mankind; women's freedom and liberation should be pursued and defended by both men and women.  I hope that the Iranian people and the people of all countries, especially women and other vulnerable groups, the insulted and the harmed, can overthrow all kinds of autocratic forces and oppression, lift the visible and invisible shackles, and "remove all coma and rape".  happiness.

                                                               Wang Qingmin

                                                        October 2, 2022

                                                231 Year of the Republican Calendar Kasumi Potato Day